Berger warns that Iran, Iraq may deploy nukes

WASHINGTON -- U.S. President Bill Clinton's national security adviser has warned that unless the Middle East peace process shows progress the region could be plunged into a war that includes the use of nuclear weapons.

White House National Security Adviser Samuel Berger said the region is "at a historic crossroads" and its leaders, people and culture are "in the midst of a transition unlike anything we have seen."

Berger raised the prospect of both Iran and Iraq deploying nuclear weapons, the first time a senior U.S. official issued such a warning. In the past, U.S. government spokespeople said both countries are a long way from such capability and that Iraqi programs of weapons of mass destruction have been frozen.

"Ask yourself this simple question: if a country like Iraq or Iran were to acquire a nuclear arsenal, would Israel be better off surrounded by a buffer of peace or trapped within a deadly circle of hatred?" Berger told the Israel Policy Forum on Wednesday. "The fact is that with the possible exception of South Asia, the Middle East is the most dangerous region in the world when it comes to weapons of mass destruction and one of the regions most likely to see them used."

In attendance were the ambassadors to Israel and Yemen. Yemen does not have diplomatic relations with Israel but diplomatic sources said Sanaa is exploring such an option. Berger acknowledged the attendance of the two ambassadors.

Berger said the Arabs and Israelis have to make "hard decisions" regarding a peace settlement. "The Middle East is in the midst of a transition unlike anything we have witnessed in living memory," he said. "From North Africa to the West Bank, the region is changing in ways small and large that will affect every single aspect of people's lives."

He pointed to the high percentage of young people in the Arab world and the new crop of Arab leaders. He said half of the Saudi population is under 15, 65 percent of Iranians are under 25 and in Algeria, 30 percent is under 30.

"Unless there is a climate in which reformers can take charge, tomorrow's Middle East could be a region of exploding demographics and imploding economies; of overpopulation and underperforming educational systems," Berger said.

Berger said many in the Middle East are resisting political and economic changes, with the result being high military spending, low foreign investment and educations levels. He said half of the1 million people connected to the Internet in the Middle East -- the lowest regional percentage in the world -- lives in Israel.

The national security adviser urged Congress to approve $1.9 billion in funding to implement the Wye River accords. "There is no greater priority for this administration and there is no greater priority for this president than to bring about that just, lasting and comprehensive peace for which so many of you have given so much for so many days and years of your lives," he said.