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Special Report: Iran's strategic aims threatened by protests

By Steve Rodan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, July 14, 1999

JERUSALEM -- The student demonstrations in Iran could change the face of the Middle East, say Israeli experts monitoring the unrest.

What is at stake, officials say, is the future of an Islamic regime sworn to destroy the Jewish state that is developing intermediate-range ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. The wave of student protests that has swept Iran could change the regime and restore the warm relationship between Israel and Iran that ended during the Islamic revolution in 1978.

Government sources said on Tuesday that Prime Minister Ehud Barak is being briefed regularly on developments in Iran. The sources said Barak believes that the success of the students to institute reform will prompt widespread changes throughout the region.

"We have to look at this continuously," deputy Defense Minister Efraim Sneh said. "We are worried only by what the regime does that endangers us. I refer to the potential of Iran to develop missiles and nuclear weapons."

The reports being distributed by the Foreign Ministry and intelligence agencies are not hopeful of another revolution. They point to the control of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei of the army, intelligence agencies and police. Khamenei, the reports say, has for the moment chosen restraint but can crush the student demonstrations if he feels they endanger his rule.

The assessment is shared by Turkey, Israel's strategic ally in the Middle East and a neighbor of Iran. Turkey, which has an embassy in Teheran and a presence in several cities, is closely following the unrest.

Still, the Israeli reports speak of the huge popular support for the demonstrators and for the reforms of President Mohammed Khatami. That support includes large parts of the civilian government, particularly the state-controlled radio and newspapers.

The question being asked by Israeli government analysts is whether that will be enough to topple the Islamic regime. Currently, their answer is no. The reports being sent to Barak say the students remain largely alone in the streets and have not been joined by the merchant class, a key sector in Iranian society.

Quietly, Israeli officials say the unrest could not have come at a better time. For the last two years, Iran has been relentless in its drive to complete an intermediate ballistic missile program. The first missile, called Shihab-3, was tested last July and has a range of 1,300 kilometers [800 miles].

The Shihab-3 could be completed by the end of the year, the officials said. The missile, they said, has encountered difficulties, particularly in its guidance system. But even with its faults, the missile could strike Israel and play a role in any regional war. Officials say Iran is trying to install a chemical warhead on the Shihab-3.

The Islamic regime has placed greater hopes in its Shihab-4 program. This missile is meant to have a range of 2,200 kilometers [1,400 miles] and is expected to be much more accurate than the Shihab-3. The Shihab-4 is the missile being developed by Russian companies along the lines of the SS-4 missile. The Shihab-4, the officials say, is planned to be tipped with a non-conventional warhead, probably a nuclear or biological weapon.

Iran has made it clear that its target is Israel. Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani has gone beyond that and has suggested that Iran's missile arsenal might be used to help Syria in any war with Israel. Syria is Iran's only Arab ally and Western intelligence sources say Teheran is helping Damascus's missile and nonconventional weapons program.

Israeli efforts to recruit international support to stop Iran's missile and nuclear weapons programs have been largely unsuccessful. Iran has succeeded in developing ties to the West and last month Greece sent its defense minister to discuss military cooperation.

But the student unrest in Teheran could change the face of the Islamic regime, Israeli government analysts said. Some of the student leaders have announced that they want to end Teheran's anti-Israeli policy and restore ties with the Jewish state.

Iranian supporters of Khatami say the president shares that aim. Khatami and his foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, they say, are seeking an opening to reduce tension with Israel. So far, Khamenei and his colleagues in the ruling clergy have blocked any such effort.

Barak is said to believe that a change in Teheran's leadership will reverberate throughout the Middle East. Iran's military alliance with Syria could change; its support of the Shi'ite Hizbullah in Lebanon could end, and Iran could change its support of Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

"For Syria and many Islamic militants, the prospect of a powerful Iran gives them hope that this could deal a fatal blow to both Israel and the pro-U.S. regimes in the region," an analyst said.

Another assessment raises the prospect that the student unrest may backfire. Khamenei, government analysts say, would not give up power without a fight that is at least as vigorous as that of Shah Reza Palavi in 1978 during the last months of his regime.

Khamenei, the analyst say, could mobilize thousands of his Revolutionary Guard loyalists to pummel students and lock up dissidents. The Islamic cleric could declare a state of emergency on grounds that the students are being directed by the United States and Israel.

Already, Iranian government spokespeople are accusing the United States and Israel of involvement.

At that point, the analysts say, Khamenei might feel he has nothing to lose. His crackdown on dissidents could also include the persecution of the 25,000-member Jewish community.

The first victims could be the 13 Jews detained on suspicion of being part of an international spy ring. Analysts now believe that the arrests of the rabbinical students was part of the regime's offensive against Khatami's liberal supporters.

"We hope that not only will their righteousness will be proven but that they will be released," Foreign Minister David Levy said.

Barak and Levy have urged government officials not to comment on the Iranian student unrest. At the same time, Israeli representatives continue efforts to begin contacts with Iran's official clergy.

Israel's Sephardic Chief Rabbi Eliyahu Bakshi-Doron, for example, has called for a dialogue between Shi'ite mullahs and rabbis. "I hope to God that they should open their hearts and we can talk to them as believer to believer," the chief rabbi said.

For his part, Sneh, who has contacts with the Iranian opposition, does not believe the mullahs will be in control for much longer. "The existence of the Iranian regime is the people business and my impression is they will have their say," Sneh said.

Wednesday, July 14, 1999


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