U.S., Israel fear succession crisis in Syria

JERUSALEM [MENL] -- Israel and the United States are doubtful over whether Bashar Assad can succeed his father, Syrian President Hafez Assad.

Officials said the succession issue has become crucial as the health of the senior Assad is rapidly deteriorating. They acknowledge that Bashar continues to be opposed by many in the ruling Alawite minority.

"It is clear that Assad will appoint Bashar before he feels he is incapacitated and that few will object initially," a government source said. "The question is how long can Bashar last without his father?"

But aides to Prime Minister Ehud Barak said the question marks are only pushing the senior Assad to complete a peace agreement with Israel. They said Assad, days before his meeting in Geneva, has still not made the decision to narrow the gap between the Israeli and Syrian positions.

"None of us, from the prime minister down, knows whether we are in an irreversible process," Internal Security Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami said. "The next week or two will tell us whether there is something with Syria."

Intelligence reports in Washington and Jerusalem have determined that the Syrian military objects to the 35-year-old Bashar, an ophthalmologist turned colonel. The reports said senior military commanders could overthrow Bashar the minute Assad dies. The Assad family is part of the Alawite minority.

"No responsible government in Israel can ignore the internal developments in Syria," deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "What is required is not to stop until a model democracy is established there. Therefore, the only option is to place in the agreement security margins that are so wide that if there is a change for the worse in Syria it won't affect us."

Western intelligence sources said Bashar has launched his bid for power with a campaign against corruption. The focus is first on the Alawite minority before the heir-successor is expected to move to eradicate corruption within the Sunni majority.

The sources said Bashar is expected to encounter fierce resistance and this could destabilize both the regime and the position of the Alawite elite. At that point, the sources said, Alawite military commanders could decide to overthrow Bashar.