CIA: Assad suffers from dementia

JERUSALEM -- The Central Intelligence Agency has determined that Syrian President Hafez Assad suffers from dementia, an Israeli newspaper reported on Monday.

The Haaretz daily said Assad suffers from what the newspaper termed intermittent dementia. The condition is characterized by a deterioration of mental faculties and emotional apathy.

A U.S. intelligence source confirmed the assessment. The source said the 69-year-old Assad appears to be no longer thinking logically and is driven by an obsession to hand over power to his son Bashar even while destroying the base of the president's power.

The report was issued as the United States and Israel are closely following Assad's deteriorating health. Israeli military intelligence has assessed Assad as having no more than three years of life and will probably stop functioning long before that.

The daily said the CIA diagnosis was determined through those who met Assad over the last few months. Visitors reported what they termed Assad's fluctuations in his coherence and concentration.

Israeli military intelligence does not agree with the CIA analysis, Haaretz said. The newspaper said Israeli intelligence believes that the CIA diagnosis exaggerates Assad's true condition.

The newspaper does not specify which part of Israeli military intelligence disputes the CIA diagnosis. Military intelligence has often been divided between the assessment of the corps chief, who is a combat officer, and the research division.

Haaretz said military intelligence does not believe that Assad's health is a significant factor on his ability to rule or make decisions. This includes an agreement with Israel or the grooming of his successor and son, Bashar.

Hours after the newspaper report, Israel Radio quoted intelligence sources as saying that Assad is suffering from an advanced stage of leukemia. The radio reported the CIA report on Assad's health but did not mention that Israeli military intelligence disagrees with the assessment.

Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli ambassador to Washington and regarded as a leading expert on Syria, expressed doubts whether the 34-year-old Bashar can succeed his father. "There is no assurance that Bashar will succeed him," Rabinovich. "Therefore, if the current circumstances are not exploited we could get stuck for several years."

The newspaper said military intelligence believes that colleagues of Assad and influential Syrians are in favor of peace with Israel. Military intelligence is said to believe that any peace treaty signed by Assad will be honored by his successors.

The U.S. intelligence source said Assad's decision to agree to the Clinton peacemaking effort is based on the president's need for billions of dollars in aid to prop up the collapsing Syrian economy. The source said Assad apparently believes that the money will buy Bashar the necessary support to remain in power.

The source said Assad has been purging the Syrian leadership of any potential rivals. This includes Gen. Ali Duba, head of intelligence. At the same time, Assad has allowed Hizbullah to escalate attacks against Israeli troops in Lebanon in a drive to appease Iran and Palestinian radicals.

Some Israeli officials agree. Israeli Transportation Minister Yitzhak Mordechai said Syria is expressing what he termed worrisome signs. He would not elaborate.

On Monday, the London-based A-Sharq Al Awsat daily reported that Assad will name a new government within 36 hours. The newspaper said four men are being considered for the post of prime minister. They are Vice President Mohammed Zuheir Masharqa, Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara, deputy Baath Party Suleiman Kadah and parliamentary speaker Abd Khader Khaddoura.