Hard experience changes CIA's estimates of rogue nations' missile deployment

WASHINGTON -- The CIA and the rest of the U.S. intelligence community has dramatically changed its approach toward assessing the missile development programs of so-called rogue nations as Iran and North Korea.

The new approach, officials said, is that the CIA regards the first successful launch of a missile as a demonstration of near-term deployment. The reassessment comes in the wake of what CIA officials acknowledge as surprises in the missile development programs of Iran and North Korea.

For decades, U.S. intelligence viewed the development of missile programs through the prism of Washington's experience. The CIA envisioned that developing nations would need years if not more than a decade to complete intermediate- or long-range missiles in a process that would require constant testing and improvement.

The result, U.S. officials said, is that Washington repeatedly underestimated the missile programs of developing nations.

Today, the officials said, the CIA no longer expects developing nations to wait until their missiles are either accurate or in large numbers until they are ready for deployment. They said these missiles are not meant to destroy enemy sites but to deter any attack by the United States and the West.

"For coercive purposes, WMD-armed ballistic missiles need not be deployed in large numbers or be highly accurate and reliable," John Holum, President Bill Clinton's adviser on arms control, said. "There is no need for robust test programs, or for deployment of large numbers of missiles in dedicated long-term deployment sites. That, combined with our uncertainties in assessing the threat means our warning times have sharply diminished."

Officials said other difficulties include limits on U.S. intelligence and the increased effectiveness of denial and deception.

Holum said U.S. intelligence can provide a warning of no more than a few months of the intercontinental ballistic missile capability of a foreign country. A few years ago, the CIA said it could provide a warning of five years.

"It now considers a threat to have emerged upon the first successful flight test, which could occur with perhaps a few months warning, if that," Holum said.

In a recent address, Holum said the key to arms control is Russia. Moscow has opposed U.S. plans to develop a national missile defense system and officials said Russia is quietly helping Iran with its intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as providing technology meant to overcome any anti-missile defense system.