U.S. estimate sees Middle East falling behind global pace
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, December 20, 2000
WASHINGTON — The Middle East could sink in a morass of terrorism and
violence as the region fails to maintain the pace of globalization, a U.S.
intelligence report says.
A new report by the National Intelligence Council outlines a dire
forecast for the Middle East, fraught with such woes as declining economies,
overpopulation and Islamic extremism. The report, "Global Trends 2015: A
Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts," forsees many in
Iran and the Arab world embracing fundamentalism and turning against the
West.
"Regimes in the region — from Morocco to Iran — will have to cope with
demographic, economic and societal pressures from within and globalization
from without," the report said. "No single ideology or philosophy will unite
any one state or group of states in response to these challenges, although
popular resentment of globalization as a Western intrusion will be
widespread. Political Islam in various forms will be an attractive
alternative for millions of Muslims throughout the region, and some radical
variants will continue to be divisive social and political forces."
Even Israel reported rising poverty. A report released on Tuesday said
Israel has more than 1.13 million citizens — or every sixth person — under
the poverty line. The report said another 100,000 Israelis, half of them
children, joined the poverty rolls.
The U.S. council envisions the prospect of a nonconventional missile
attack on the United
States by 2015. The report also does not rule out anti-Western terrorist
coalition. This
coalition could eventually deploy weapons of mass destruction.
"Regions, countries and groups feeling left behind will face deepening
economic stagnation, political instability and cultural alienation," the
report said. "They will foster political, ethnic, ideological and religious
extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it."
The report does not forsee an Israeli-Palestinian conciliation, but
suggests that at most the two sides will reach a "cold peace.
In an unrelated development, the United States and the European Union
have affirmed their
commitment to encourage arms-exporting countries to adopt the principles of
responsibility, transparency and restraint that they apply to their own arms
export programs. This includes the banning of exports to any country who
might use military systems against civilians.
Wednesday, December 20, 2000
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