Clinton's ambassador to Israel predicts end of special relationship
By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, December 22, 2000
HERZLIYA, Israel — As any diplomat, Martin
Indyk relays much of his messages in hints and
suggestions.
So, when he gave what could be one of his last
addresses to the Israeli leadership, the U.S.
ambassador urged it to remember well the
administration of President Bill Clinton.
"I want to advance one prediction," Indyk said. "In
another year, maybe, just maybe, you'll miss us."
Indyk, an appointee of Clinton, was voicing a
forecast that even amid the turbulence of the current
Israeli elections political and defense chiefs are
concerned over the policies of the incoming
administration of President-elect George W. Bush.
What appears clear to both Israeli, as well as U.S.
experts, is that Bush will end the American bear hug
of the Jewish state. Israel will not be on the top of
the Bush administration's agenda and probably not on
its foreign agenda.
The question is whether this will mean a
significant drop in support for Israel.
Indyk, an assistant secretary of state under
Clinton and twice ambassador to Israel, told the
Herzliya conference on strategy that Bush will
continue the fundamental principles of his
predecessor. That means he will continue to support
Israel and work for Middle East peace.
The question is how he will operate. Indyk said the
Clinton administration might have differed with
Israel, but never withheld aid or support to show
Washington's displeasure.
"We never withheld aid as a form of pressure,"
Indyk said. "Whatever differences we had, none of its
approached what this."
Robert Satloff, director of the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, appeared to agree.
Satloff, who was a foreign policy adviser to Clinton,
said the president employed a luxury that none of his
predecessors enjoyed: waging a personal foreign policy
amid peace and U.S. domination in world affairs.
Bush will not have the luxury, Satloff said. The
Middle East is seething with anti-American sentiment.
Moreover, Bush, who won by a hair-thin margin, will
seek to first establish legitimacy.
The result, Satloff said, is that Bush will hand
over foreign policy to his Secretary of
State-designate Colin Powell. Middle East leaders,
including the Israeli prime minister, will be asked to
stay out of Washington.
"There will be no more bear-hugs, no sleepovers at
Camp David," Satloff said. "If your prime minister or
[Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser] Arafat wants
to come in March, the answer will be, 'Not now. Talk
to Colin Powell.'"
Analysts close to the Republican Party and the Bush
campaign did not disagree. They said Bush appears
undecided over which wing of the party will run
foreign policy.
For David Wurmser, a senior fellow of the
Washington-based American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy
Research said the choice is between the neo-conservatives
and the traditionalists.
The traditionalists believe in constructive
engagement with even such regimes as Iran and number
such figures as former U.S. Secretary of State James
Baker, who served under Bush's father in 1988, and his
predecessor, Henry Kissinger.
The president-elect appears to be favoring this
crowd for his foreign policy team. This, Wurmser said,
will mean a low-key, accommodating foreign policy that
will seek profits over principles.
The other wing of the party is that of the
neoconservatives. This wing consists of such former
Reagan administration aides as Richard Perle and Paul
Wolfowitz. This wing wants the United States to act
against tyrants such as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
and confront the military threat from China.
Wurmser raises the prospect that Bush will never
resolve this split. The result, he suggests, could be
a U.S. policy toward Israel that will be inconsistent
and full of divisions.
"I think we will see a Bush administration that
will be divided in its foreign policy all the way
through," Wurmser said.
Thursday, December 21, 2000
|