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Clinton's ambassador to Israel predicts end of special relationship

By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, December 22, 2000

HERZLIYA, Israel — As any diplomat, Martin Indyk relays much of his messages in hints and suggestions.

So, when he gave what could be one of his last addresses to the Israeli leadership, the U.S. ambassador urged it to remember well the administration of President Bill Clinton.

"I want to advance one prediction," Indyk said. "In another year, maybe, just maybe, you'll miss us."

Indyk, an appointee of Clinton, was voicing a forecast that even amid the turbulence of the current Israeli elections political and defense chiefs are concerned over the policies of the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush.

What appears clear to both Israeli, as well as U.S. experts, is that Bush will end the American bear hug of the Jewish state. Israel will not be on the top of the Bush administration's agenda and probably not on its foreign agenda.

The question is whether this will mean a significant drop in support for Israel.

Indyk, an assistant secretary of state under Clinton and twice ambassador to Israel, told the Herzliya conference on strategy that Bush will continue the fundamental principles of his predecessor. That means he will continue to support Israel and work for Middle East peace.

The question is how he will operate. Indyk said the Clinton administration might have differed with Israel, but never withheld aid or support to show Washington's displeasure.

"We never withheld aid as a form of pressure," Indyk said. "Whatever differences we had, none of its approached what this."

Robert Satloff, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, appeared to agree. Satloff, who was a foreign policy adviser to Clinton, said the president employed a luxury that none of his predecessors enjoyed: waging a personal foreign policy amid peace and U.S. domination in world affairs.

Bush will not have the luxury, Satloff said. The Middle East is seething with anti-American sentiment. Moreover, Bush, who won by a hair-thin margin, will seek to first establish legitimacy.

The result, Satloff said, is that Bush will hand over foreign policy to his Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell. Middle East leaders, including the Israeli prime minister, will be asked to stay out of Washington.

"There will be no more bear-hugs, no sleepovers at Camp David," Satloff said. "If your prime minister or [Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser] Arafat wants to come in March, the answer will be, 'Not now. Talk to Colin Powell.'"

Analysts close to the Republican Party and the Bush campaign did not disagree. They said Bush appears undecided over which wing of the party will run foreign policy.

For David Wurmser, a senior fellow of the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research said the choice is between the neo-conservatives and the traditionalists.

The traditionalists believe in constructive engagement with even such regimes as Iran and number such figures as former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, who served under Bush's father in 1988, and his predecessor, Henry Kissinger.

The president-elect appears to be favoring this crowd for his foreign policy team. This, Wurmser said, will mean a low-key, accommodating foreign policy that will seek profits over principles.

The other wing of the party is that of the neoconservatives. This wing consists of such former Reagan administration aides as Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz. This wing wants the United States to act against tyrants such as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and confront the military threat from China.

Wurmser raises the prospect that Bush will never resolve this split. The result, he suggests, could be a U.S. policy toward Israel that will be inconsistent and full of divisions.

"I think we will see a Bush administration that will be divided in its foreign policy all the way through," Wurmser said.

Thursday, December 21, 2000


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