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U.S., Israel hold strategic talks on prospect of regional war

By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, November 7, 2000

TEL AVIV — Only weeks ago, Israel and the United States were planning a diplomatic offensive that would end in Middle East peace.

Today, both countries are quietly discussing the prospect of a regional war.

Israel and the United States completed two days of strategic talks in the southern port city of Eilat in which officials and intelligence commanders reviewed the threat assessments in the region. This time, however, representatives from the two countries did not focus on such long-range threats as Iran and Iraq — but rather the prospect of a regional war that could sweep Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinians and even Jordan.

"It was one of the most dramatic changes in the strategic map," a source at the meeting said.

The Israeli military has been quick to detect the shift in the region. Military intelligence officers regarded the mini-war between Israel and the Palestinian Authority as more than a passing episode — but rather a change in strategy by PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, who was coordinating with such states as Iraq, Syria and the Hizbullah militia in Lebanon. They began to envision a two-front war that could involve massive rocket attacks from Lebanon and a massive insurgency from the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The result, military sources said, is that the intelligence division began to increasingly envision the prospect of a regional war — despite the lack of military preparedness by virtually every Arab state in the region. As intelligence officers see it, Syria could be swept into a war with Israel because of the inexperience of the 35-year-old President Bashar Assad. From that point, Iran, Iraq and even Jordan might follow.

Prime Minister Ehud Barak, a former military intelligence chief, has has raised the prospect of a massive rocket attack on Israel should peace efforts fail with the Palestinians.

The U.S.-Israel semi-annual session was headed by Israeli Defense Ministry director-general Amos Yaron and the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Eric Newsom. They included officials from the State Department and Defense Department as well as Israel's Foreign Ministry.

The most threatening front is Israel's northern border with the Hizbullah. Intelligence officers told their U.S. counterparts in Eilat that the Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia — with Iranian encouragement — wants to prompt a regional war against Israel. Hizbullah has amassed an arsenal of hundreds of rockets, many of which could strike the Israeli city of Haifa.

"Iran is always pushing Hizbullah," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "It is also pushing other organizations, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to launch attacks inside Israel. This is an element that has tremendous power and resources and the rising price of oil makes Iran richer, not for its poor citizens but for its terrorist adventures. And we are the target."

From that point, the intelligence sources said, Syria and Iran can quickly be swept into conflict. The Palestinians would certainly escalate the violence in the West Bank and Gaza and might even use their secret arsenal of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons.

The officials also discussed Israel's mini-war with the Palestinians. The discussions included leading military commanders, who reviewed military tactics against Palestinian Authority combatants. Israeli officials said PA Chairman Yasser Arafat intends to obtain United Nations protection as part of a drive for a state.

On Sunday, Israel's Cabinet was briefed by military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Malka. Cabinet sources quoted Malka as saying that Iran is recruiting Westerners to enter Israel as tourists and launch terrorist attacks, including blowing up office and apartment towers. The general also said Iran is encouraging Hizbullah to capture additional Israeli civilians and soldiers along the northern border.

The general said Iran has launched an effort to increase its influence in Lebanon and Syria as part of Teheran's drive to raise its profile in the Middle East.

Cabinet sources said that ministers are taking seriously the assessments of the military. This, after many Cabinet members said they believed the military was exaggerating in its assessments that warned of such developments of an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon or the difficulties in concluding an agreement with the Palestinians.

"This is probably the most difficult hour in the history of Israel," Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami said.

The strategic meeting in Eilat also discussed Israel's military needs. The military has sought an additional two billion shekels [$490 million]. The Finance Ministry has agreed to transfer 150 million shekels to the military amid the conflict with the PA.

The United States wants Israel to increase its military budget rather than rely merely on additional U.S. military aid. U.S. officials said attempts by the government to cut its military budget have dismayed key members of Congress.

Tuesday, November 7, 2000


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