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Barak's political marriage with Clinton is on the rocks

By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, October 25, 2000

JERUSALEM — It was another night of Palestinian attacks on Jerusalem. Palestinian gunners were spraying machine-gun fire on a southern Jerusalem neighborhood and Prime Minister Ehud Barak called the telephone number that he knows better than any other — the White House office of President Bill Clinton.

Barak described the Palestinian shooting to Clinton and urged for an Israeli attack that would once and for all end what he termed the Palestinian Authority's aim to turn the Middle East into Kosovo.

"Imagine, a foreign entity in Chevy Chase [Maryland] firing into Washington," Barak was quoted by his aides as telling Clinton. "Would you tolerate this? Could any country tolerate this?"

Once again, Clinton was noncommital. After 15 minutes, Barak ended Monday's conversation frustrated.

To Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Clinton is a lame-duck president. But to Barak, Clinton remains the biggest element in Israel's policy of restraint.

Quietly, senior Israeli officials and ministers are acknowledging that Barak has failed to break the shackles set by the U.S. president. Despite Barak's conclusions that Arafat seeks an Arab war with Israel, the prime minister can't say no to a president who more than anybody else was responsible for Barak's election and peace policy.

As the officials see it, Barak has brought Clinton too deep into the Middle East peace process to declare its end. They acknowledge that Clinton agreed to throw his full weight behind Barak's policy based on the prime minister's appeal that this would succeed in bringing peace to the Middle East as well as mark a major success for the U.S. administration.

"I am certain that Ehud Barak understood the situation a long time ago," Deputy Prime Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said. "Our problem is that our biggest and perhaps only friend is the United States under President Clinton. And we have a difficulty — from the psychological respect if not in practical terms — telling President Clinton at the very end of his term in office that Israel isn't interested in anything."

The result, the officials say, is that Barak is deeply disappointed by the Clinton administration. They said Clinton has privately agreed that Arafat has torpedoed U.S. peace efforts and rejected a compromise proposal for a final status agreement.

But Clinton has refused to acknowledge the Palestinian rejection. Moreover, the officials said, Clinton has refused to approve an Israeli aid request for $800 million needed by the military to counter Arab threats of war. Instead, the administration is prepared to allocate no more than $250 million to help Israel's military.

"There has been heavy damage done by Arafat to the U.S. president," Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami said. "This is the hour for the United States, with all of its means, including the strengthening of Israel. These are the means that should be used to apply pressure [on the Palestinians.]"

So far, Clinton has said no. The president has objected to Barak's threats to suspend the peace process and implement a plan that would, in effect, annex parts of the West Bank to Israel. He has dismissed Barak's appeal to force Arafat to either stop the violence or drive him into exile and launch peace efforts with a new Palestinian leadership.

As Clinton sees it, Barak has simply no choice. He cannot walk away from a peace process with the Palestinians or decide that he wants to separate from them. As a result, Clinton is said to have agreed to an Arafat proposal for peace negotiations after the presidential elections on Nov. 7.

"Israeli and Palestinians are bound, even condemned to live together side by side," U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk said. "There is no separation that can exist in these circumstances."

Barak aides said Clinton is ignoring the intelligence assessments of the CIA. They said the CIA and Israeli intelligence agree that Arafat plans to escalate violence against Israel until he declares a state as early as Nov. 15. At that point, the aides said, Arafat will offer to renew negotiations with Israel.

"What does the CIA say: that Yasser Arafat plans to liberate Palestine with blood and fire," Environment Minister Dalia Itzhik said.

But Barak's hands — despite growing impatience by his military — are tied. Political sources from both Barak's Labor Party and the opposition Likud said the prime minister owes Clinton too much to spark a dispute between the two men during the president's last months in office. For Barak, Clinton represents the height of a more than 20-year relationship between Barak and successive U.S. administrations that began when he was a colonel in the Israeli army.

Instead, the sources said Barak has suspended plans for a massive attack on Arafat meant to stop the Palestinian violence. They said such an offensive was planned for this week.

"People naturally want us to use all of our might," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "And this would end up in very bad results. This is a time for diplomatic understanding and strong nerves."

At most, the sources said, Barak will selectively increase Israel's response to Palestinian attacks in hope that this will temporarily prevent an escalation.

Labor Party sources refer to the close ties between the two leaders as well as Clinton's efforts to promote Barak's policies throughout Europe. They say an angry Clinton would destroy Barak's reputation, which would end up turning Israel into an international pariah and spark an effort to deploy United Nations troops in the Palestinian areas.

Opposition sources are less charitable. They say Barak owes his premiership to Clinton. These sources, who include aides to leading opposition politicians, say Clinton groomed Barak for leadership when he left the military in 1994 and then helped raise tens of millions of dollars as well as political support for Barak's campaign.

Barak is currently being investigated on suspicion of massive campaign improprieties.

"These are things that even opposition parliamentarians don't want to highlight," a leading political aide said. "It raises too many questions that can haunt a lot of people."

The question is how long can Barak keep still. On Nov. 1, the Knesset is scheduled to vote on a motion of no-confidence. Currently, Barak has the support of no more than 40 parliamentarians, a far cry from the 61 needed for a majority of the Knesset.

Barak has intensified his efforts for a so-called emergency government to ensure his political survival. But again, Barak has been warned both in Israel and in Washington against inviting the Likud.

Several Cabinet ministers envision a harsh U.S. reaction to Barak offering Likud chairman Ariel Sharon any role in Israel's defense or foreign policy. They said Clinton is the last bulwark against massive international pressure.

"It will cause severe damage to our international standing because Israel will take on to itself the responsibility for stoping the process," Justice Minister Yossi Beilin said. "This will also be a severe blow to President Bill Clinton who has invested in the process throughout his whole presidency."

Wednesday, October 25, 2000

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