Barak's political marriage with Clinton is on the rocks
By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, October 25, 2000
JERUSALEM — It was another night of Palestinian attacks on
Jerusalem. Palestinian gunners were spraying machine-gun fire on a southern
Jerusalem neighborhood and Prime Minister Ehud Barak called the telephone
number that he knows better than any other — the White House office of
President Bill Clinton.
Barak described the Palestinian shooting to Clinton and urged for an
Israeli attack that would once and for all end what he termed the
Palestinian Authority's aim to turn the Middle East into Kosovo.
"Imagine, a foreign entity in Chevy Chase [Maryland] firing into
Washington," Barak was quoted by his aides as telling Clinton. "Would you
tolerate this? Could any country tolerate this?"
Once again, Clinton was noncommital. After 15 minutes, Barak ended
Monday's conversation frustrated.
To Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Clinton is a lame-duck president.
But to Barak, Clinton remains the biggest element in Israel's policy of
restraint.
Quietly, senior Israeli officials and ministers are acknowledging that
Barak has failed to break the shackles set by the U.S. president. Despite
Barak's conclusions that Arafat seeks an Arab war with Israel, the prime
minister can't say no to a president who more than anybody else was
responsible for Barak's election and peace policy.
As the officials see it, Barak has brought Clinton too deep into the
Middle East peace process to declare its end. They acknowledge that Clinton
agreed to throw his full weight behind Barak's policy based on the prime
minister's appeal that this would succeed in bringing peace to the Middle
East as well as mark a major success for the U.S. administration.
"I am certain that Ehud Barak understood the situation a long time ago,"
Deputy Prime Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said. "Our problem is that our
biggest and perhaps only friend is the United States under President
Clinton. And we have a difficulty — from the psychological respect if not
in practical terms — telling President Clinton at the very end of his term
in office that Israel isn't interested in anything."
The result, the officials say, is that Barak is deeply disappointed by
the Clinton administration. They said Clinton has privately agreed that
Arafat has torpedoed U.S. peace efforts and rejected a compromise proposal
for a final status agreement.
But Clinton has refused to acknowledge the Palestinian rejection.
Moreover, the officials said, Clinton has refused to approve an Israeli aid
request for $800 million needed by the military to counter Arab threats of
war. Instead, the administration is prepared to allocate no more than $250
million to help Israel's military.
"There has been heavy damage done by Arafat to the U.S. president,"
Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami said. "This is the hour for the United
States, with all of its means, including the strengthening of Israel. These
are the means that should be used to apply pressure [on the Palestinians.]"
So far, Clinton has said no. The president has objected to Barak's
threats to suspend the peace process and implement a plan that would, in
effect, annex parts of the West Bank to Israel. He has dismissed Barak's
appeal to force Arafat to either stop the violence or drive him into exile
and launch peace efforts with a new Palestinian leadership.
As Clinton sees it, Barak has simply no choice. He cannot walk away from
a peace process with the Palestinians or decide that he wants to separate
from them. As a result, Clinton is said to have agreed to an Arafat proposal
for peace negotiations after the presidential elections on Nov. 7.
"Israeli and Palestinians are bound, even condemned to live together
side by side," U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk said. "There is no
separation that can exist in these circumstances."
Barak aides said Clinton is ignoring the intelligence assessments of the
CIA. They said the CIA and Israeli intelligence agree that Arafat plans to
escalate violence against Israel until he declares a state as early as Nov.
15. At that point, the aides said, Arafat will offer to renew negotiations
with Israel.
"What does the CIA say: that Yasser Arafat plans to liberate Palestine
with blood and fire," Environment Minister Dalia Itzhik said.
But Barak's hands — despite growing impatience by his military — are
tied. Political sources from both Barak's Labor Party and the opposition
Likud said the prime minister owes Clinton too much to spark a dispute
between the two men during the president's last months in office. For Barak,
Clinton represents the height of a more than 20-year relationship between
Barak and successive U.S. administrations that began when he was a colonel
in the Israeli army.
Instead, the sources said Barak has suspended plans for a massive attack
on Arafat meant to stop the Palestinian violence. They said such an
offensive was planned for this week.
"People naturally want us to use all of our might," Deputy Defense
Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "And this would end up in very bad results. This
is a time for diplomatic understanding and strong nerves."
At most, the sources said, Barak will selectively increase Israel's
response to Palestinian attacks in hope that this will temporarily prevent
an escalation.
Labor Party sources refer to the close ties between the two leaders as
well as Clinton's efforts to promote Barak's policies throughout Europe.
They say an angry Clinton would destroy Barak's reputation, which would end
up turning Israel into an international pariah and spark an effort to deploy
United Nations troops in the Palestinian areas.
Opposition sources are less charitable. They say Barak owes his
premiership to Clinton. These sources, who include aides to leading
opposition politicians, say Clinton groomed Barak for leadership when he
left the military in 1994 and then helped raise tens of millions of dollars
as well as political support for Barak's campaign.
Barak is currently being investigated on suspicion of massive campaign
improprieties.
"These are things that even opposition parliamentarians don't want to
highlight," a leading political aide said. "It raises too many questions
that can haunt a lot of people."
The question is how long can Barak keep still. On Nov. 1, the Knesset is
scheduled to vote on a motion of no-confidence. Currently, Barak has the
support of no more than 40 parliamentarians, a far cry from the 61 needed
for a majority of the Knesset.
Barak has intensified his efforts for a so-called emergency government
to ensure his political survival. But again, Barak has been warned both in
Israel and in Washington against inviting the Likud.
Several Cabinet ministers envision a harsh U.S. reaction to Barak
offering Likud chairman Ariel Sharon any role in Israel's defense or foreign
policy. They said Clinton is the last bulwark against massive international
pressure.
"It will cause severe damage to our international standing because
Israel will take on to itself the responsibility for stoping the process,"
Justice Minister Yossi Beilin said. "This will also be a severe blow to
President Bill Clinton who has invested in the process throughout his whole
presidency."
Wednesday, October 25, 2000
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