CIA: Iran could test ICBM next year
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, December 21, 2000
WASHINGTON — Iran could test an intercontinental ballistic missile
as early as next year, the CIA says.
The National Intelligence Council, a 15-member CIA-sponsored panel, says
Iran could test either an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2001 and a
land-attack cruise missile in 2004.
"Iran sees its short- and medium-range missiles as deterrents, as
force-multiplying weapons of war, primarily with conventional warheads, and
as options for delivering biological, chemical, and eventually nuclear
weapons," a new global assessment by the council said. "Iran could test an
IRBM or land-attack cruise missile by 2004 and perhaps even an ICBM or space
launch vehicle as early as 2001."
The report said that by 2015 the United States could face an
intercontinental ballistic missile threat from Iran and perhaps Iraq. By
2015, the report said, Iran is expected to tip its missiles with nuclear
warheads.
"Weapons development programs, in many cases fueled by foreign
assistance, have led to new capabilities -- as illustrated by Iran's
Shahab-3 launches in 1998 and 2000 and North Korea's Taepo Dong-1 space
launch attempt in August 1998," the report said. "In addition, some
countries that have been traditional recipients of missile technologies have
become exporters."
The report, entitled "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future
with Nongovernmental Experts," said Iraq's missile program will be dependent
on the level of international control and United Nations sanctions. The
report said Iraq could test an intercontinental ballistic missile with
nuclear warheads before 2015.
The United States and the European Union will have less control over
missile and weaopns of mass destruction programs as export control regimes
and sanctions will be less effective. The report said this will result in a
loss of control over weapons technology transfers.
"Theater-range ballistic and cruise missile proliferation will
continue," the report said. "Most proliferation will involve systems a
generation or two behind state of the art, but they will be substantially
new capabilities for the states that acquire them. Such missiles will be
capable of delivering WMD or conventional payloads inter-regionally against
fixed targets. Major air and sea ports, logistics bases and facilities,
troop concentrations, and fixed communications nodes increasingly will be at
risk."
Thursday, December 21, 2000
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