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CIA: Iran can already deploy Shihab-3 missile

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Monday, March 13, 2000

WASHINGTON -- Iran has already achieved the capability to deploy the medium-range Shihab-3 missile, the CIA says.

In an unclassified report to Congress, the CIA said Iran achieved success in development of the Shihab-3, with a range of 1,300 kilometers. The agency said Russia and China supplied much of the missile components and technology for Iran's ballistic missile programs.

In the first half of 1999, the CIA report said, Iran has "built and publicly displayed prototypes for the Shihab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, which had its initial flight test in July 1998 and probably has achieved 'emergency operational capability' -- i.e., Teheran could deploy a limited number of the Shihab-3 prototype missiles in an operational mode during a perceived crisis situation."

Iranian officials have said the Shihab-3 is meant to target Israel. Israeli defense officials said the Arrow anti-missile system ready for deployment does not have the capability to intercept the Shihab.

The determination differs with previous assessments that Iran continues to encounter difficulties in the development of the Shihab-3, a missile based on the No-Dong of North Korea.

The report, issued last week, said Iran remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire ballistic missile and nonconventional weapons technology from abroad. The CIA said that in 1999 Iran focused its efforts to acquire such technology from Russia, China, North Korea and Western Europe. China, for example, supplied missile components, raw material and technical expertise to Iranian missile programs.

"In doing so, Teheran is attempting to develop an indigenous capability to produce various types of weapons -- nuclear, chemical, and biological -- and their delivery systems," the report said.

The CIA said Iran is already producing short-range Scud ballistic missiles.

The report quoted Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani as acknowledging the development of the Shihab-4. At first, the minister described it as being more capable than the Shihab-3. But later he termed it as a space launch vehicle without military applications. He also mentioned a more advanced Shihab-5.

The CIA said Teheran seeks dual-use equipment from Russia and Western Europe for its nonconventional weapons programs. "Outside assistance is both important and difficult to prevent, given the dual-use nature of the materials, the equipment being sought, and the many legitimate end uses for these items," the report said.

Moreover, Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons through development of a large civilian project. The report said Russia is a leading supplier and contractor of the planned 1,000-megawatt nuclear reactor in Bushehr.

"The expertise and technology gained, along with the commercial channels and contacts established -- even from cooperation that appears strictly civilian in nature -- could be used to advance Iran's nuclear weapons research and developmental program," the CIA said. "Despite international efforts to curtail the flow of critical technologies and equipment, Teheran continues to seek fissile material and technology for weapons development and has set up an elaborate system of military and civilian organizations to support its effort."

The report said Russia has pledged to limit its nuclear cooperation with Iran. But Moscow has failed to enforce export controls.

Monday, March 13, 2000


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