U.S. intelligence split over China's intentions

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. intelligence community is divided over China's intentions toward Taiwan, officials here said.

The division pits those who assess that China plans to attack Taiwan and even the United States against those who believe that Beijing has decided against an offensive in favor of economic growth.

The split in the intelligence community, U.S. government sources told Middle East Newsline, is reflected in a new Pentagon assessment on Beijing. The report, distributed to Congress on Friday said China believes war would jeopardize its economic growth and world standing but is gradually closing a qualitative gap with Taiwan.

U.S. intelligence sources said the majority assessment is that China is building its force cruise missiles, air-launched bombs and short-range ballistic missiles.

The report said China could still attack the island nation although Beijing faces ''significant shortcomings'' in a conflict with Taiwan over the next decade. The Pentagon said that until 2006 China's military will have ''only a limited capability'' to conduct a combined air, sea and land offensive.

''This weakness would contribute to Taiwan's ability to sustain air, sea and ground operations in the face of a PLA [People's Liberation Army] attack in the short term,'' the report says.

The report sees the turning point in 2010, when China could achieve qualitiative military superiority over Taiwan. This could include an advance short-range missile system that could quickly overwhelm Taiwan's defenses. Another project is that of a stealth fighter.

"A PLA amphibious invasion of Taiwan probably would be preceded by a naval blockade, air assaults and missile attacks on Taiwan," the report says. "Airborne, airmobile and special operations forces likely would conduct simultaneous attacks to the rear of Taiwan's coastal defenses to seize a port, preferably in close proximity to an airfield."

"Some in China are aware that war with Taiwan could be economically and politically devastating,'' the report says.

"Should China decide to attack Taiwan, Beijing's goal would be to erode Taipei's will to fight with sufficient alacrity to avoid escalation of the conflict and potential third party intervention in the hope of forcing a political resolution in Beijing's favor," the report says.