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Yergin sees 'The Asian
Comeback'
December 8, 1998
By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com
TOKYO--Always ahead of the curve in
anticipating change,
historian-author-consultant Daniel Yergin
is already talking about "The Asian
Comeback."
His forecast is not gushing optimism but a
prediction for cautious restart of the
things that created the Asia powerhouse in
the first place.
"We are likely to see it first in South
Korea and Thailand with political reform
already leading the way," said Yergin in a
speech here. "By 2000 most of the region
will be back on its feet, learning from past
mistakes and forging ahead."
Yergin has seen it happen before. "In
1960, India and South Korea were about
the same in gross domestic product
(GDP). By 1990, South Korea's GDP
was 15 times greater than India's."
I have always called that phenomenon
"the Korean whammy." Yergin was more
astute, giving credit to talent and energy
of the people, plus a "get-it-done" attitude
that can only be improved through less
regulation and more transparent
management.
He said a new Korean awareness that
cooperation with Western and Japanese
corporations will enhance, not hinder,
growth will be a hallmark of the reversal
of fortune on the peninsula.
Yergin was introduced to a Tokyo
audience of businessmen, bankers,
reporters and scholars as "a walking think
tank" and "renaissance man".
He didn't disappoint. Yergin showed his
ability to to call a spade a spade without
insulting anyone.
A recent parade of Japan-bashers has left
Tokyo reeling. Economist Paul Krugman,
whose thumb-in-the-eye criticisms and
"there never was an Asian miracle in the
first place" line have grown tiresome.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
has been as subtle as a trainweck in
knocking Japan and U.S. Trade
Representative Charlene Barshefsky takes
no prisoners. Even glib Deputy Treasury
Secretary Lawrence Summers hasn't
found out that there is a graceful and
effective way to talk to Japan.
And diplomat-turned-Brookings
Institution scholar Edward Lincoln should
be asked to stand in the corner for his
suggestion that the U.S. should be "rude"
to Japanese leaders.
Yergin said in answer to a question from
the floor that there did indeed seem to be
a long pattern of denial that Japan's
financial sector was in trouble, based
partly on tradition and pride."They had
some denial of allegations that their
solutions weren't working," he said. "I
think the full attention given to the crisis
here now is starting to show results."
Yergin was in Tokyo mainly to promote
the Japanese-language version of
"Commanding Heights: The Battle
Between Government and the
Marketplace That is Remaking The
Modern World"(Simon and Schuster,
New York, 1998, US$26) which he
co-authored with international markets
guru Joseph Stanislaw.
The book had sold 554,229 copies in
English, mostly in the U.S., as of last
Friday (Dec. 4). In Japan, another 10,000
Japanese-language books were printed
last week to bring the total in stores here
to 30,000 so far.
"We can't comprehend 'Commanding
Heights' in Japanese language," said
Hajime Watanabe of Nihon Keizai
Corporation, the bookseller here. "We
were afraid many people would think it
was a novel. We chose 'Markets vs.
States' because that is a good theme in
Japan now."
He added "We well-remember that the
Japanese title of 'The Prize'(Yergin's
earlier Pulitzer Prize-winning book) was
changed to 'The Oil Century." That is so
straight and good for us."
Watanabe said "Market vs. States" is
slightly different than "Market vs.
Government" used in the English version.
"In Japan, 'government' is felt not to be a
strong word. That is interesting but true.
So we have to choose the word 'States'"
One of Yergin's final themes was right on
the money. There is nothing in Japan
remotely resembling the huge American
policy-formation machine, the informal
conglomerate of public and private
interests of every shade, that is constantly
tossing out new economic plans and
ideas."
"Who thinks for Japan? That's a valid
question. Where are the think tanks to
inform politicians and spur creativity?,"
Yergin asked.
He also said "China and Russia are two
great laboratories conducting great
experiments of democratization and open
markets."
How they move into the new
"globality"--a term Yergin, who is
president of his own Cambridge Energy
Research Associates, prefers to the
voguish "globalization"--will have great
bearing on the 21st century.
Yergin said a lot of the money market has
to do with semantics. He told of the
Dutch trader in Thailand some years ago
who struck out trying to sell the idea of a
"Third World Fund" to Wall Street. No
sale. Then he tried "Developing Nations
Fund." Still no interest.
Then he presented the same package with
a different, more cutting-edge
name--"Emerging Markets Fund"--and
everyone wanted to buy in.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
December 8, 1998
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