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Taipei mayor's race forecasts Taiwan's future
December 1, 1998
By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com
TOKYO--In the Taipei mayoral election taking place Saturday (Dec. 5)
between incumbent Chen Shui-bian and former justice minister Ma
Ying-jeoh, the winner will be---Taiwan!
That's not a wishy-washy cop-out, but a fact.
The "loser" may run for president in March 2000. And although both
have pledged to serve a full term if victorious in the race for mayor,
there is the possibility that they may square off as opponents for the top
job now held by the charismatic, Taiwan-born Lee Teng-hui.
Chen and Ma define the Taiwan political scene today.
Chen, 49,is the shining star of the opposition Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) which is identified with independence for Taiwan. He is
Taiwan-born and has traveled to fame as a democrat ironically benefiting
from the liberalization carried out by the Kuomintang(KMT), which fled to
Taiwan in 1949 unde Generalissimo Chian Kai-shek and ruled with an iron
hand in the early years.
The sitting mayor would be a shoo-in except for the fact that mainland
China, which claims Taiwan is a renegade province, says it will no brook
no talk of independence.
In 1996, piqued at President Lee's trip to the United States, China
fired missiles near Taiwan to prove who is in charge. Another round of
Chinese tests--this time employing advanced missiles--has been predicted to
begin before the end of this year, perhaps before the end of this week
Ma, 48, is among the brightest of second-generation mainlanders who
comprise 20 percent of Taiwan's 21.4 million population.
If Ma wins, the mainlanders and the KMT will have new life. If he
loses, it may be the brn-in-China-group's swan song.
"And if Chen wins," a Western diplomat noted wryly, "the United States
will be forced to get a China policy."
His sour assessment was because the U.S., which cultivated Taiwan
democracy every step of the way, seems to be tempering support of Taiwan in
return for the lucrative payoff of commercial ties with "big China," still
ruled by Communists.
Of the two candidates, I am better acquainted with Ma, my sentimental
favorite in Saturday's vote. Fresh from a Harvard Ph.D, he was the
interpreter when I interviewed former President Chiang Ching-kuo (son of
Chiag Kai-shek) in Taipei's Japanese-built executive mansion in 1983.
Chiang spoke of the reforms he was to implement in coming years,
including hand-picking people like Lee, Ma, Lien Chan, James Soong, Fred
Chien, Jason Hu, Vincent Siew, and John Chang to lead the KMT through
transition years.
Ma has a lot going for him in the talent and charisma departments. He
won respect bucking the KMT old guard as a crime-busting Minister of
Justice and so the role as balancer may overcome his deficit of being born
in Hong Kong of mainland parents.
I have known Chen for only a few years but there is no doubt in my
mind that he would be able to handle pressures from the mainland and from
the U.S. if he wins Saturday, wins the presidency in 2000 and asserts his
drive for independence.
"We are already independent, hasn't anybody noticed," he asked
rhetorically on his last visit to Tokyo . Chen told me he favored a
referendum eventually to determine the wishes of Taiwan's people.
Chen's blind side is that he doesn't have people with experience and
political savvy around him. This lack, caused by the KMT's prolonged grip
on power, is understandable, but a major flaw which only time can correct.
Taiwan has a lot of residual support in Japan as China's President
Jiang Zemin found out last week. Japan's refusal to pledge a "three nos"
position on Taiwan, as the U.S. had done obsequiously, was a bright spot
for Japanese diplomacy which had been criticized as a mere follower of U.S.
moves.
The out-of-protocol presence of former foreign minister Qian Qichen,
now "Special Adviser on Taiwan Policy," sitting next to Jiang throughout
the Japan visit was intriguing to analysts.
It either underscores the importance Beijing attaches to the Taiwan
issue, which we already knew, or suggests Jiang may be in political trouble
at home, which we didn't know.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
December 1, 1998
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