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TOKYO — Opposition demands that Taiwan President Chen Shui-ban step
down have raised concerns over stability in the Taiwan Strait, analysts
say.
Chen's controversial scrapping of a partially-completed $5.5 billion
nuclear power plant set off a chain of events which have raised tensions in
domestic political circles but also threatened hoped-for restarting of
talks with China.
There is a further long-term security consideration: Taiwan imports 97
percent of its energy. If China ever made good on its threatened forced
unification of Taiwan, China's logical option would be to set up a naval
blockade and cut off Taiwan's oil supply.
Alexander Huang, a professor of Tamkang University in Taipei, told
Taiwan newsmen
that it is the timing which worries him most.
"Taiwan and China have only a few months to go before Beijing is
preoccupied with preparations for its next Communist Party congress in
2002, not to mention WTO entry discussions" he said, adding that Chen's
administration hasn't been able to pick-up on hints from Beijing that some
renewed conversation was possible.
Recent subtle but significant changes in the mainland's rhetoric
indicated the two sides might talk, even though long-term positions
remain unchanged. Beijing broke off official talks last year.
Diplomats in Washington and Tokyo, who welcome any signs of Strait
stability improvement, are likewise "nervous about anything that tends to
rock the status quo boat,"
a Western diplomat said, anonymously.
President Chen's two opponents in the Presidential election last year
(Kuomintang's Lien Chan and People First Party's James Soongˇ) have
formed a tenuous united front to oust Chen, who is backed by the Democratic
Progressive Party.
Bringing them together in the first place was a snub by Chen in which
the President told Lien in a televised meeting that he would "consider" the
KMT's position not to scrap the nuclear plant.
Minutes after the meeting, the Chen administration announced it would
shelve the project. Despite's Chen's rudeness, there is doubt Lien's
KMT and Soong's PFP can generate the public support for a recall.
A poll last week by television station TVBS indicated 65 percent of
respondents opposed a recall. The poll showed that president Chenˇ (under
Taiwan law he could not run after being recalledˇ) would receive 40 percent
of votes cast if he could run. Soong would get 32 percent and Lienˇ (whose
KMT holds 115 seats in the 220-member legislatureˇ) would get only 12
percent.
Chen's popularity has bounced back somewhat following a contrite
apology to Lien which was televised. But in recent days, Lien has shown
no hint of backing off the recall drive which itself could be a threat to
Taiwan's nascent democracy.
Where does Taiwan's senior statesman, former President Lee Teng-hui,
fit in the latest flap? His statement on the issue will carry considerable
weight.
Curiously, he has been silent so far although he has recovered from
successful coronary angioplasty surgery Nov. 6. Lee, 77, began to feel
discomfort while exercising
after his return from a trip to Prague.
Meanwhile, Lee's latest book, "Asia's Strategy" published in
Japanese in Tokyo in late July, was recently released in a Chinese-language
edition by Taiwan's Yuan Liou Publishing Co.
The book gives Lee's views of the future roles of the U.S., China and
Japan in Asia.
Publishing sources in Taipei expect an English-language version to be
published soon.
Lee's book was "co-authored" by Mineo Nakajima, the president of
the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, which explains its publication
first in a Japanese-language edition.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@tkd.att.ne.jp) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.