TOKYO--The cacophonous media bombardment this week has been unrelenting
as the world's
editors and producers feel obliged to lead celebrations of the 50th
anniversary in power of th
a remarkable documentary of e Chinese Communist Party(CCP).
Will there be a similar celebration to mark the 75th anniversary of the
Party? That is the real question behind all the hoopla.
From Time magazine's "China's Amazing Half-Century" cover story to the
provocative "Does China Matter?" in red ink on the front of the journal
Foreign Affairs, the world's foreign policy buffs,
pseudo-intellectuals, academics and serious China-watchers are being
inundated with unprecedented
hype.
Some of the contributions are indeed meaningful, like Norma Percy's
"Playing The China Card," how America reversed its ostracism of China,
enabling Richard Nixon to visit Beijing and shake hands with Mao Zedong in
1972. It was reviewed on Britain's Channel 4 September 25 and will be
shown in the U.S. on PBS in January.
Another gem on U.S.-China relations is a new book by James Mann,
diplomatic correspondent of the Los Angeles Times: "About Face: A History
of America's Curious Relationship With China (Alfred A. Knopf, New York,
376 pages, 1999, US$30)."
China is said to be spending lavishly for cosmetic surgery on the
700-year-old capital of Beijing for the October 1 birthday event. That is
bound to have good effect except that in the process some horrific new
buildings like Oriental Plaza, Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing's
tribute to capitalism, may erase some of the city's historic charm.
The real celebration should be the 20th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping's
economic reforms and open door which saved China from Communist disaster.
There is really not much else to celebrate, unless you want to listen to
young cadres repeat "We have fed and clothed one billion people."
Mao made his contribution in establishing the People's Republic of
China, even though communism per se and as a political experiment has
failed. The power grip of the CCP is ongoing superficially but even that
may be threatened as China's masses demand diversity.
If President Jiang Zemin is to establish himself as the third Great
Helmsman--after Mao and Deng--he must show some accomplishment like
absorbing Taiwan or making reforms work conclusively and demonstrably. That
is a tall order.
China faces enormous problems from millions of dissatisfied peasants,
to labor grievances, to disenchanted party members, to wealth disparities
between coastal cities and the interior, to decreasing land for cultivation
and a tremendous environmental impact. China is the most polluted nation on
earth.
Add to these such man-made problems as corruption and nationalism used
by vested interests such as the military.
Can Jiang manage these challenges and hand over power smoothly to the
next generation, led probably by Hu Jintao, 56, now a vice-premier?
This 50th birthday is a snap. The festive air will continue through
this year, as the Portuguese territory of Macau returns to China in
December just as British Hong Kong did in 1997. Then things will get
serious since Taiwan is next on China's political timetable. Can Jiang
deliver? There is no solution in sight.
The March 2000 Taiwan presidential election outcome could turn out to be
a leadership
referendumn in Beijng as well as in Taipei.
It is doubtful that the Communist Party of China in its present form
will be celebrating a 75th birthday in power. Most likely it will be part
of a coalition.
Political parties of any kind tend to disintegrate after 50 years or
so of monolithic rule. History books testify to this reality.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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