China wary of being upstaged by North Korea missile test

By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com

TOKYO--Chinese strategists feel that a rumored North Korean missile shot in September would upstage their own ballistics missile fireworks show planned to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic of China on October 1.

In some respects, Beijing is just as concerned about another missile shot by Pyongyang as is Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. Analysts say Pyongyang is likely to time its launch for Sept.9, the 51st anniversary of North Korea's communist government. Another assessment puts the launch date around Sept. 21.

China joined other nations at the recent ARF (Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum. including foreign ministers from ASEAN, European Union, U.S., Japan, China and eight other countries) meeting in Singapore in calling for reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Diplomats and intelligence operatives in Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo have been discussing the quandary which amounts to a public relations or propaganda conflict between the two Asian communist allies.

China's plans for marking the half-century birthday of the PRC, these sources say, are being revised to show displeasure over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's July 9 statement that Taiwan-Mainland relations hereafter should be viewed as "country-to-country," or at least as a special "state-to-state" ties.

China has expressed anger and must show some meaningful response but is taking a wait-and-see attitude. Lee's statement has come close to checkmating political moves in the region.

Taiwan had grown tired of being referred to as a "renegade province" under a one-China definition that is at best a fanciful charade.

In fact, Taiwan has developed its institutions apart from China to become a flourishing democracy and one of the world's great trading nations and economic success stories. Politically, it is an anachronism perpetuated by China's voodoo leverage over the rest of the world, mainly the U.S.

A favored way to deal with Lee, advocated by some military hardliners in Shanghai, would be to lob some late-model missiles in the direction of Taiwan, in a repeat of the 1996 "missile crisis". This would create intimidation and have the collateral benefit of showing that the Chinese military was not a "paper tiger."

In 1996, the intimidation ploy backfired and Lee won the presidency.

But how many missiles this time? How close to Taiwan should they be fired to send a meaningful message? Would such firings cause a boomerang effect among ASEAN nations? Would relations with the U.S., inching toward improvement after the Belgrade embassy bombing, be set back?

China has quietly told North Korean leader Kim Jong Il that his scheduled trip to Beijing will be delayed indefinitely if he plays the missile card irresponsibly.

Japan has made no preparations for either possibility. Whether a propaganda missile is fired by Pyongyang, Beijing or both, Tokyo will react indignantly after the fact.

The United States, tired of being labeled "soft on North Korea" and full of itself after the relative success of air strikes in Kosovo, may be eying the dockyards at Wonsan for air strikes to show Pyongyang that it means business. The impact would be felt in Tokyo's Diet, and on the agenda between Beijing and Washington. The setting is opportune to play out the Pentagon adage "We prefer to fight one war at a time."

Without fanfare, the U.S has moved a second aircraft carrier into Northeast Asian waters, with the USS Constellation joining the Yokosuka home-ported USS Kittyhawk.

Cohen arrived in Tokyo early in the week and warned North Korea that any ballistic missile test would have "serious implications" for its relations with Washington. Although he didn't mention China by name, the message was clear that the U.S. wouldn't tolerate China's use of force against Taiwan.

In perspective, events have reached what some analysts believe to be one of those periodic geopolitical turning points. Restraint or lack of it, shown by the military forces of China, North Korea, United States, South Korea and Taiwan over the next few weeks could define the political-security landscape of Northeast Asia for years to come.

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.