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Putin: Diplomatic phenomenon or flash-in-the-pan?


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By Edward Neilan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

July 27, 2000

TOKYO -- The next few weeks will tell if Vladimir Putin, Russia's President and spy who came in from the Cold War, is a diplomatic phenomenon or a flash-in-the-pan.

Although still on a popularity roll from the Group of Eight Summit in Okinawa, some skeptics believe Putin could stub his toe as early as the scheduled September 3-5 meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in Tokyo.

After all, Japanese know more about judo than does Putin, although he he earned a Black Belt in the sport when he was a KGB agent.

Japanese diplomats are known to feel that Putin is likely to continue in the talks Moscow's policy of delay--some Japanese call it "deception"--on a range of bilateral issues from a peace treaty to Northern Islands ' territorial disputes.

Meanwhile, the G-8 applause for Putin echoes:

French President Jacques Chirac has praised Putin as a champion of reforms.

"We had the impression that he has great determination to implement reforms as rapidly as possible."

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder hailed the Russian president's "confident, but not overdrawn appearance."

On his way to Okinawa, Putin stopped over in North Korea where he apparently got a promise from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to scrap Pyongyang's missile program.

The move, widely interpreted as an attempt by Moscow to undercut Washington's main argument for a proposed national missile defense system, helped Putin seize the spotlight at the start of the summit.

Putin also made a pre-summit visit to China, where he and Chinese President Jiang Zemin jointly condemned the U.S. missile defense plans. The meetings of Putin, Jiang and Kim within a few days struck some analysts as a revival of the "the good old days" of Cold War communist solidarity.

Putin spoke at length about North Korea at the G-8 leaders' first dinner, then offered additional details during the bilateral meetings.

President Clinton expressed reservations about North Korea's promise on the missile issue, saying it remains vague. Other leaders said they were very impressed by Putin's Korean presentation.

Putin said his visit to Pyongyang was necessary to help end North Korea's international isolation and take a close look at the alleged missile threat.

Putin denied that his trip to North Korea was intended to embarrass the Clinton administration by deepening its rift with such allies as France and Germany, who strongly oppose the proposed defense shield.

Although Putin's youth -- he will turn 48 in October -- freshness and candor made him the star of the summit show, there were other reservations besides Clinton's.

Privately,there were doubts expressed about "Putin's war" in Chechnya, Moscow's relations with Serbia, continuing problems with the business oligarchs and their corruption, and human rights violations.

U.S., British, and Italian "sherpas"--working members of the delegations -- expressed opinions that the Russian economy was so shaky that Putin's air of confidence could not last long.

Putin was shot down at Okinawa on the question of easing Russia's debt burden.

Moscow had hoped to use the summit to negotiate a write-off of $42 billion in Soviet-era loans it owes to Western governments. Germany and others warned from the start that was out of the question. This topic is bound to harm Russia's efforts to become a serious member of various economic forums.

He spoke at length -- at times in Russian, English and German --about Russia's interest in the broad global problems that dominated the summit, such as the development of information technologies and genetic science.

Putin won the image battle over Clinton at Okinawa. The latter was upstaged because Putin was talking about Asian issues in an Asian locale, while Clinton seemed distracted by the Middle East talks.

It will be interesting to see how long the honeymoon will last between the onetime St. Petersburg city public relations chief and the world press.

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

July 27, 2000


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