TOKYO -- The next few weeks will tell if Vladimir Putin, Russia's
President and spy who came in from the Cold War, is a diplomatic
phenomenon or a flash-in-the-pan.
Although still on a popularity roll from the Group of Eight Summit in
Okinawa, some skeptics believe Putin could stub his toe as early as
the scheduled September 3-5 meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro
Mori in Tokyo.
After all, Japanese know more about judo than does Putin, although he
he earned a Black Belt in the sport when he was a KGB agent.
Japanese diplomats are known to feel that Putin is likely to
continue in the talks Moscow's policy of delay--some Japanese call it
"deception"--on a range of bilateral issues from a peace treaty to
Northern Islands ' territorial disputes.
Meanwhile, the G-8 applause for Putin echoes:
French President Jacques Chirac has praised Putin as a champion of
reforms.
"We had the impression that he has great determination to implement
reforms as rapidly as possible."
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder hailed the Russian president's
"confident, but not overdrawn appearance."
On his way to Okinawa, Putin stopped over in North Korea where he
apparently got a promise from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to scrap
Pyongyang's missile program.
The move, widely interpreted as an attempt by Moscow to undercut
Washington's main argument for a proposed national missile defense system,
helped Putin seize the spotlight at the start of the summit.
Putin also made a pre-summit visit to China, where he and Chinese
President Jiang Zemin jointly condemned the U.S. missile defense plans. The
meetings of Putin, Jiang and Kim within a few days struck some analysts
as a revival of the "the good old days" of Cold War communist solidarity.
Putin spoke at length about North Korea at the G-8 leaders' first
dinner, then offered additional details during the bilateral meetings.
President Clinton expressed reservations about North Korea's promise
on the missile issue, saying it remains vague. Other leaders said they were
very impressed by Putin's Korean
presentation.
Putin said his visit to Pyongyang was necessary to help end North
Korea's international isolation and take a close look at the alleged
missile threat.
Putin denied that his trip to North Korea was intended to embarrass the
Clinton administration by deepening its rift with such allies as France and
Germany, who strongly oppose the proposed
defense shield.
Although Putin's youth -- he will turn 48 in October -- freshness and
candor made him the star of the summit show, there were other reservations
besides Clinton's.
Privately,there were doubts expressed about "Putin's war" in Chechnya,
Moscow's relations with Serbia, continuing problems with the business
oligarchs and their corruption, and human rights violations.
U.S., British, and Italian "sherpas"--working members of the
delegations -- expressed opinions that the Russian economy was so shaky
that Putin's air of confidence could not last long.
Putin was shot down at Okinawa on the question of easing Russia's
debt burden.
Moscow had hoped to use the summit to negotiate a write-off of
$42 billion in Soviet-era loans it owes to Western governments. Germany and
others warned from the start that was out of the question. This topic is
bound to harm Russia's efforts to become a serious member of various
economic forums.
He spoke at length -- at times in Russian, English and German
--about Russia's interest in the broad global problems that dominated the
summit, such as the development of
information technologies and genetic science.
Putin won the image battle over Clinton at Okinawa. The latter was
upstaged because Putin was talking about Asian issues in an Asian locale,
while Clinton seemed distracted by the Middle East talks.
It will be interesting to see how long the honeymoon will last between
the onetime St. Petersburg city public relations chief and the world
press.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.