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Obuchi's trip to Beijing clouded by new Sino-Japan tensions

June 30, 1999

By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com

TOKYO--Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's upcoming trip to Beijing July 8 could be held in an even more stiff and tense than Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to Tokyo last November, analysts say.

Tete-a-tetes between leaders of East Asia's two strongest powers have evolved in recent years from grand oriental tea parties stressing protocol, details of massive Japanese loans, Chinese mild requests for apologies of World War II grievances to tabling of tough protests by China over Tokyo's new defense guidelines and infatuation with the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) concept.

Both are seen as evidence of Japan's closer military ties with the U.S. and possible barriers to China's aim to regain Taiwan.

Only the birth two months ago in Tokyo amid much media fanfare of a rare Chinese crested ibis, whose parents were donated by a Chinese zoo, seemed to restore a degree of warmth to ties between the two nations with so much cultural affinity.

A new set of Chinese naval provocations is causing tensions on the eve of the Obuchi visit, although the Japanese foreign ministry is doing its best to downplay the significance for now.

Since April, Chinese marine research vessels and navy warships have become more actively operating in Japanese waters and the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) set by Japan. This is a lie equidistant from China, Japan and South Korea and generally acknowledged by all parties.

The number of confirmed sightings by Japan has already topped the record set three years ago.

The pattern of intrusions by Chinese vessels was first reported by Keiko Iizuka, a Yomiuri Shimbun staffer based in Naha, Okinawa.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry said under its laws, Japan could take action against the intruders.

But a Maritime Self-Defense Agency source said "In actuality we cannot do so under the current circumstances."

That is wishy-washy doublespeak for the fact that under Japan's no-war constitution, a complicated set of circumstances must be in place before any action may be taken.

"Because of politics, a warning shot has never been fired by a Japanese vessel," said a Western naval attache. "Consider the difference when North and South Korean navies square off, as they did recently. "

Aside from showing its political and military muscle, China has strong interest in the area's resources, said Shigeo Hiramatsu, professor at Kyorin University:

"In the wake of its rapid growth, China is in great need for oil and marine resources. At present, China has a strong interest in waters around the equidistant line of Japan, anticipating huge deposits of oil there."

He said "When it comes to the recent movements of the Chinese Navy warships, China wants to secure a navigation course enabling it to sail from the East China Sea into the Pacific, as seen in that it has demonstrated the presence of its naval strength since the days of Deng Xiaoping. The passage lying in between the main Okinawa Island and Miyako Island is in this sense deemed as an important one."

Noting that Chinese vessels have been spotted in these waters for the past decade or so, Hiramatsu said the Japanese Government "has been irresolute--done nothing-- in taking proper action against them."

As a result, China has been gradually broadening the scope of its activities. While seeing how Japan reacts, China has escalated its activities to the point of carrying out military exercises by its warships, the professor said.

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

June 30, 1999


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