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TOKYO - When U.S. President Bill Clinton travels to Okinawa in July for
the G-8 Summit, he may find as host the eighth Japanese Prime Minister
since the American leader took office in 1993.
The approval rate of the current and seventh Japanese leader in that
sequence, Yoshiro Mori, is declining daily and stood at 18.6 in a poll
taken Monday by the nation's largest newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun
(circulation 10 million).
Mori's approval rate has dwindled steadily from a high of 42 percent
in April when he took office after former Prime Minister Obuchi had a
stroke and subsequently died. Mori has become notorious at home and abroad
for his controversial remarks referring to Japan as a "divine nation."
He has lately avoided serious foot-in-mouth gaffes although over the
weekend he twice referred to the G-8 Summit as "the Expo."
Nevertheless, a separate survey taken by the same newspaper over the
weekend showed the governing coalition led by Mori's Liberal Democratic
Party gaining a stable majority of 254 seats in the 480-member House of
Representatives election on Sunday June 25.
Such a victory would assure Mori's re-election as prime minister to
serve at least through the G-8 Summit. In any case, Mori's days seem to
be numbered as he is likely to leave office by the autumn as a result of
factional scrimmaging within the LDP and among the smaller parties.
If the LDP fails to win election of 229 of its own candidates., it is
likely that voices within the ruling camp will call for Mori to step down.
Possible successors are former foreign minister Yohei Kono and former prime
minister Ryutatro Hashimoto, both of whom will be highly visible at the G-8
sessions.
The parade of Japanese prime ministers reflects inst ability which
has had the nation's economic slump at its root. Most estimates say that
downturn is over and that a transitional period in economics is being
followed by one in politics.
Things started to change, and the revolving door of prime ministers
commenced when Morihiro Hosokawa became the first non-LDP prime minister
in 38 years.
The LDP is still the main power but has had to resort to coalition
partners.
The so-called 1955 System of one-party rule by the LDP has become a
thing of the past.
Hosokawa, who took over from Kiichi Miyazawa, was followed by Tsutomu
Hata, Tomiichi Murayama, Hashimoto and Obuchi.
But the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, led by Yukio Hatoyama
and the Liberal Party ledby Ichiro Ozawa have never really captured voters'
imaginations.
Yukio and his younger brother Kunio are sons of Ichiro Hatoyama, a
former prime minister who was highly respected by voters.Å@The pedigree has
not helped in this generation as the brothers are constantly feuding,
turning their backs on one another and causing splits among their
followers.
Yukio is accused by his brother of becoming a leftist while studying
engineering at Stanford. Kunio, his brother claims, spends too much time
with his butterfly collection.
Yukio Hatoyama says in the 21st Century, the reunified Korean Peninsula
will be a diplomatic hot potato for Japan, but the relationship with China
will be even more delicate.
Perhaps the key factor in the election centers on the weatherman.
Rainy skies, (this is Japan's "rainy season") will mean a light turnout,
which favors inbcumbents. Sunny weather means a heavier turnout, favoring
newcomers or a change.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.