'Perry Mission' to Pyongyang unlikely to produce results

By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com

TOKYO--Give former United States Congressman Stephen J. Solarz 10 points for candor.

Solarz, a former Democrat law maker from New York who was point man on North Korea as head of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia & Pacific Affairs in the 1980s, was in Tokyo recently to participate in a couple of seminars.

He was subbing for former Defense Secretary William J. Perry, Washington's North Korea Policy Coordinator, who was tied up across town with Japanese officials with whom he was exchanging notes on his mission to Pyongyang.

Perry has been studying "how to achieve lasting peace and stability" on the Korean Peninsula. This is an admirable goal because nearly a half-century has elapsed since the Korean War started in 1950, followed by an uneasy truce.

Solarz is one of these individuals who dares think the unthinkable and speak the unspeakable.

He said that while he has every genuine wish for the success of the combined "Sunshine Policy" of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and Perry's mission of peace, "I remain truly skeptical of the outcome."

The outspoken former congressman was not throwing cold water on the peace idea, but rather injecting a note of realism, based on his experience dealing with the North Koreans.

He noted that too often "hope" became policy when it was overemphasized. Solarz will never be accused of talking over the heads of his audience, in this case mostly Japanese foreign affairs wonks and a smattering of Western professors and journalists.

"A year from now, if the Sunshine Policy and the Perry Mission have proved successful, I will return to Tokyo and eat my hat," Solarz said, causing the simultaneous interpreters great difficulty in conveying the English-language figure of speech.

There was no confusion about Solarz' meaning in his follow-up: "While I would prefer peace and would agree to more rounds of talks, there is a distinct possibility that the North Koreans will strain the patience of the parties too far. We can't 'do nothing' while they become capable of striking South Korean, Japanese and American cities with nuclear-armed missiles."

"They could become 'another Kosovo' and invite air strikes on Pyongyang," Solarz said.

While he said air strikes should be avoided, we should not be afraid to consider the possibility.

Nothing is served by imitating ostriches and hiding our heads in the sand, Solarz said.

He said air strikes are not likely to cause an allout war. Because if North Korea ever lifted a finger, they could be annihilated. "The men in power in North Korea know this."

He said North Korea can survive neither all-out war nor all-out peace. Either one would end their control. "They need a perpetuation of tension, internally and externally. Look at the record."

Some would argue that pre-emptive air strikes would force them to more serious negotiations, Solarz said. A new U.S. administration may want to end North Korea's free hand in setting the agenda.

Another panelist cited a U.S. think tank study that claimed 460,000 South Korean lives and 50,000 "American soldiers in black bags" would be the result of an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea would be a pile of ashes.

"I'm not advocating another war," the lawmaker said. "These are difficult questions. But we must consider the realities." He said all parties on all sides must be aware of the consequences of action and inaction.

Thank you, Mr. Solarz, for your candor. Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.