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China relations gridlock seen until U.S. election


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By Edward Neilan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

May 18, 2000

TOKYO -- Policy moves concerning China will be stalled in gridlock until the logjam is cleared by the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections in November.

More than ever before in recent memory, Asian region policy adjustments will be taking their cues from the state of U.S.-China relations.

The differences in nuance perceived between George Bush's and Al Gore's prospective handling of the China question is already grist for study in dozens of think tanks and foreign ministries from Tokyo to Taipei, from Seoul to Singapore and beyond.

A starting point in the forward speculation is Taiwan. Former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Defense Dov S. Zakeim said at a Philadelphia seminar May 13 "The people of Taiwan recognize that the United States remains the ultimate guarantor of their freedom, a guarantee that was put to the test during the Taiwan Straits crisis of 1996.

" But Taipei is hardly complacent about the relationship with Washington; and its concern about the depth of American commitment antedates the recent accession of Chen Shui-bian to the presidency."

Beijing will be sifting the words of Chen's May 20 inaugural speech to see if there are signs of an acceptably softer tone from the man who was once an outspoken advocate of independence. China's official Communist Party newspaper said Monday (May15) that Chen was espousing an "evading and defiant attitude." But neither Chen's "Taiwan must choose its own future" or Beijing's "one China" positions can be amended in the short run, if at all.

There needs to be an enlightened--not blundering--buying of time by the new U.S. administration to see if it can get the parties to talk about other issues-- World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, cross-strait travel and other links--anything but sovereignty.

Zakeim adds "The White House has been signally inept in sending clear signals of any kind to China's leaders."

A top-to-bottom replacement of Asian advisers at the State Department is a pressing requirement. Analysts are in agreement that new people brought in must be screened to make sure they are genuine Asia specialistss and experts, not Eurocentric retreads.

China, with the cooperation of Taiwan, has greatly improved its own overt intelligence gathering, for example. That may sound strange but both parties believe it is a way to avoid miscalculation.

During the March presidential election in Taiwan, the Government Information Office in Taipei confirmed to me that visas were given to 30 scholars from mainland think tanks (Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai Institute of International Studies, Fudan University and others ) in order to observe the election.

This was in addition to 141 reporters accredited through Hong Kong, mostly from newspapers located elsewhere in China. Add to this is old-fashioned covert spies who are rapidly losing their cachet.

China, on its part, is trying to sell the idea of a new communique that would "clarify" U.S.-China relations.

Chinese diplomats have already started working on the same sort of approach with Japan. The strategy is to get something ready to be tabled during the late October visit to Tokyo by Premier Zhu Rongji, just days before the U.S.Presidential election.

So far both Washington and Tokyo have been served by a certain ambiguity in relations.with China. How long this can last is unclear.

Japan is a chronic worrier about its relations with the U.S. and a part of this concern is how Tokyo policies play in Beijing.

Despite upgrading its military relationship with the Untied States, both in the form of the September 23, 1997 Guidelines and the more recent agreement on research cooperation for Theater Missile Defense, Japan remains discomfited by its perceived uncertain standing in America's vision for the future of East Asia.

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

May 18, 2000


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