TOKYO -- Policy moves concerning China will be stalled in gridlock
until the logjam is cleared by the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections
in November.
More than ever before in recent memory, Asian region policy
adjustments will be taking their cues from the state of U.S.-China
relations.
The differences in nuance perceived between George Bush's and Al
Gore's prospective handling of the China question is already grist for
study in dozens of think tanks and foreign ministries from Tokyo to Taipei,
from Seoul to Singapore and beyond.
A starting point in the forward speculation is Taiwan. Former U.S.
Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Defense Dov S. Zakeim said at a
Philadelphia seminar May 13 "The people of Taiwan recognize that the
United States remains the ultimate guarantor of their freedom, a guarantee
that was put to the test during the Taiwan Straits crisis of 1996.
" But Taipei is hardly complacent about the relationship with
Washington; and its concern about the depth of American commitment
antedates the recent accession of Chen Shui-bian to the presidency."
Beijing will be sifting the words of Chen's May 20 inaugural speech to
see if there are signs
of an acceptably softer tone from the man who was once an outspoken
advocate of independence. China's official Communist Party newspaper said
Monday (May15) that Chen was espousing an "evading and defiant attitude."
But neither Chen's "Taiwan must choose its own future" or Beijing's
"one China" positions can be amended in the short run, if at all.
There needs to be an enlightened--not blundering--buying of time by the
new U.S. administration to see if it can get the parties to talk about
other issues-- World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, cross-strait
travel and other links--anything but sovereignty.
Zakeim adds "The White House has been signally inept in sending clear
signals of any kind to China's leaders."
A top-to-bottom replacement of Asian advisers at the State Department
is a pressing requirement. Analysts are in agreement that new people
brought in must be screened to make sure they are genuine Asia specialistss
and experts, not Eurocentric retreads.
China, with the cooperation of Taiwan, has greatly improved its own
overt intelligence gathering, for example. That may sound strange but both
parties believe it is a way to avoid miscalculation.
During the March presidential election in Taiwan, the Government
Information Office in Taipei confirmed to me that visas were given to 30
scholars from mainland think tanks (Beijing Academy of Social Sciences,
Shanghai Institute of International Studies, Fudan University and others )
in order to observe the election.
This was in addition to 141 reporters accredited through Hong Kong,
mostly from newspapers located elsewhere in China. Add to this is
old-fashioned covert spies who are rapidly losing their cachet.
China, on its part, is trying to sell the idea of a new communique that
would "clarify" U.S.-China relations.
Chinese diplomats have already started working on the same sort of
approach with Japan. The strategy is to get something ready to be tabled
during the late October visit to Tokyo by Premier Zhu Rongji, just days
before the U.S.Presidential election.
So far both Washington and Tokyo have been served by a certain ambiguity
in relations.with China. How long this can last is unclear.
Japan is a chronic worrier about its relations with the U.S. and a part
of this concern is how Tokyo policies play in Beijing.
Despite upgrading its military relationship with the Untied
States, both in the form of the September 23, 1997 Guidelines and the
more recent agreement on research
cooperation for Theater Missile Defense, Japan remains discomfited by
its perceived uncertain standing in America's vision for the future of
East Asia.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.