Beijing protests likely to backfire

By Edward Neilan
Special to World Tribune.com

TOKYO--China's leadership is playing with fire in hyping protests against American installations to show indignation over the mistaken bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

Trying to manipulate justifiable outrage inevitably leads to overkill.

History shows there is a great boomerang effect in the making and China is likely to suffer more damage in the fallout than from the shameful, misplaced direct NATO bombing hits by American planes on the embassy.

From Seoul to Saigon, from Karachi to Calcutta, from Danang to New Delhi I have watched over the years as leaderships flaunting their best Third World mentalities called out organized demonstrators, thugs among them, to punish "Ugly Americans," "British running dogs" and other "Great Satans."

Invariably, the unleashed demonstrators have caused a backfire effect. Usually, the regime ends up doing more harm to itself than intended promoting of nationalism and blurring of historical fact.

China has let the protest genie out of the bottle.

Can authorities there get him back in and cap the bottle before the current unrest blends and escalates with pent-up resentment over the June 4,1989 Tiananmen Square issue? That one is still smoldering among a divided Chinese leadership.

One theory is that the current orchestrated protests are aimed at "burying" memories of Tiananmen Square, where the Chinese People's Liberation Army fired on student demonstrators.

The organized protests are obviously motivated and probably manipulated in the name of nationalism.

Other threads are seen: Premier Zhu Rongji's reforms including concessions on China's WTO application are under fire from some regional and political elements.

Zhu is opposed on reforms by his predecessor, Li Peng, widely held as the man who gave the orders to shoot at Tiananmen. Zhu was mayor of Shanghai at the time and is relatively "clean" on Tiananmen. There were no casualties in Shanghai demonstrations even though protests were allowed to "let off steam."

In late May 1989, I was on the press plane accompanying Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev who was visiting the city. While Gorby was laying a wreath at a statue of Russian poet Aleksandr Pushkin, I telephoned an old friend who was an editor of the Liberation Daily newspaper.

"I can't meet you today," my friend said. "We're demonstrating this afternoon for better working conditions."

The irony was immense. Here was the staff of the Liberation Daily--as communist a newspaper as you will ever find--joining demonstrations that ostensibly were for democracy. The Shanghai government was allowing protest--up to a point.

More irony: Zhu, who handled the protests well in Shanghai, may be a victim of the Beijing power struggle if the current demonstrations get out of hand. More likely, Zhu will emerge stronger than ever.

Canadian Minister of International Trade Sergio Marchi told me Tuesday in Tokyo that Zhu seemed poised and confident during his recent visit to Canada which followed his hard-bargaining trip to the U.S.

Cancellation of events like the Boston Symphony performances in China can be overcome. A scheduled U.S.-backed seminar series on Intellectual Property Rights starting in Shanghai May 20 may be scrapped, setting back China in an important area.

The demonstrations are continuing as the first authorized national protests in China in 20 years; in all parts of China, including Hong Kong and Macau. The state-run news media gives them extensive positive coverage.

Pressures had been building in China but no one could predict what it would take to set things off. Now we know. You had better stand back; the fireworks have just begun.

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.