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TOKYO -- A measure that might be called the "belligerence index" is
at its lowest point in years on the Korean Peninsula, suggesting to some
analysts that improvements, even diplomatic progress, may be in the
offing.
It does seem absurd to talk about relative calm along a border that
is the most heavily-armed in Asia, if not the world, and whose
protagonists--when they talk at all--engage in the most horrific
allegations and threats.
But monitors of the 50-year scenario known as "The Korean War"
believe they see outlines of something resembling a breakthrough, in
coalescing moods of the respective parties, in geopolitical
circumstances and timing, and economic realities that could lead to an
inching forward of the diplomatic process.
South Korean National Security Adviser Hwang Won-tak said April 3
"The two Koreas are having talks through various channels, and there is a
good chance that the two would hold a summit."
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has been predicting a fresh opening
and said he would call for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il if
his ruling Millennium Democratic Party wins a majority in April 13
parliamentary elections. This would bring to fruition President Kim's
"sunshine policy."
Hwang said "It would be hard for North Korea to open up completely right
now. But we believe that they have chosen the direction of opening and
reforms."
Of course, Kim's Seoul administration is not above touting diplomatic
success as a means of getting votes.
Formalization of ties between the United States and North Korea, between
Japan and North Korea and even between South and North Korea are goals
that are perceived as achievable in the atmosphere
of relatively-lowered tension. Pyongyang opened diplomatic ties with Italy
in January, a sign that
the reclusive regime may want to come out of its shell.
The shaping of the new scene has been subtle and nuanced. Donald P.
Gregg, chairman of the Korea Society and a former U.S.ambassador to South
Korea told Time magazine recently, "Perhaps for the first time in
history, the countries surrounding Korea are cooperating, not fighting.
None seeks hegemony in Korea, and all want to avoid a war that would
disrupt the region."
Kim Dae-jung has shown that he has the persona to smooth rough edges
with every neighbor.
"The stage seems set at long last for a positive new era in Northeast
Asia," said a Western diplomat speaking on the basis of anonymity. He
added "The North could revert to its old pattern of
making promises and then breaking them, but the elements are in places
for Pyongyang to gain some ground other than on the basis of employing
tension."
One reason for guarded optimism is that Japan seems at long last to be
ready to fully pursue diplomatic overtures in cooperation with the United
States and other nations.
Takeshi Kondo, managing director of the giant trading house Itochu,
watches political risk factors as chairman of the Foreign Relations and
National Security Issues Committee of Keizai Doykai, the Japan Association
of Corporate Executives.
"There is room for optimism on the Korean Peninsula for the first time
in a while, with certain question marks," he says. "The agreements and
other moves among North and South Korea, the United States, Japan and China
appear to have put a cap on North Korea's missile and nuclear development."
That may be, but keep in mind that Korea is still Asia's military
flash point. Any moves toward conciliation must be viewed with caution.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.