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TOKYO--If South Korean parliamentary elections were to be held tomorrow
instead of April 13, the party of President Kim Dae-jung would suffer a
rude defeat, according to opinion polls.
The chief casualties of such a loss would be the President's economic
reform program
which has brought the country out of the Asian financial crisis and has
shown a 9 percent growth last year, and placing Mr. Kim, hands tied, in
the position of lame duck leader until his mandated single term ends in
2003.
His "sunshine policy" of encouragement toward North Korea might be
harmed by such a setback
as well as his candidacy for the Noble Peace Prize, based on a long
pro-democracy record.
On the other hand, there are those analysts who think Mr. Kim's virtuoso
style would in fact be enhanced by removal of domestic political
encumbrances. He would then be freed up to use his time to negotiate a
visit to North Korea for talks with Pyongyang leader Kim Jong-il as a
symbol of realization of his "sunshine policy" and accompanying quest for
the Nobel Prize.
The latest polls, one of them by leading newspaper Dong-A Ilbo, show
that the conservative and pro-business opposition Grand National Party
was leading in 107 of 227 parliamentary districts compared to 97 for
Mr.Kim's ruling Millennium Democratic Party (MDP).
The remaining 46 seats in the 273-member national assembly are
apportioned based on the popular vote race, in which the GNP and MDP are
said to be running neck and neck.
Two smaller polls claimed the undecided bloc, nearly one-third of the
electorate, make the outcome
"too close call."
This gives the South Korean election prospect a certain similarity to
that of Taiwan, where I spent most of March. The vibrant stirrings of
democracy in Taiwan were like a spring wind, blowing away old elements and
ushering in new personalities.
On my first visit to Taiwan 30 years ago, there were no elections at
all. Now the people have spoken and provided an example that must be giving
elders in Mainland China cause to worry. Will the Communist Party of China
be toppled someday like Taiwan's Kuomintang?
Likewise when I first came to Korea 30 years ago there was little
democracy. But change has swept the peninsula. The problem is to not get
impatient because there are still plenty of dangers.
When he was elected President on Dec. 19,1997, Kim said "I always
maintained that economic and democratic development must go together. Now,
they have elected me, and I will pursue both, hand-in-hand."
Some Americans once feared President Kim Dae Jung might try to "go it
alone," call for U.S. troop withdrawal and negotiate with the North
directly. The anxieties have proved unfounded and Kim solidly supports
cooperation with the U.S.
Mr. Kim had hoped that intense competition would overcome aberrations in
Korean political life where factionalism is a hallmark.
But support for two conservative parties, the United Liberal Democrats
(ULD) and the Democratic People's Party (DPP), has been undermined by
civic groups using the internet to accuse the older generation of
politicians of being "corrupt" and "incompetent." Analysts say this
syndrome cuts both
ways for Mr. Kim, helping him amomg some groups and hurting him among others.
Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea have tentatively set a May meeting in
Sapporo for a visit to Japan by President Kim to discuss a range of
issues. Before that, Japan-North Korea negotiations on establishing
diplomatic ties will resume April 4 for the first time since the talks
collapsed in 1992.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.