TOKYO -- Three watershed elections, each with intense significance for
democratic progress in the region, will be held in Asia this year.
The United States will be among the most interested observers at the
three exercises in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. It was, after all,
American idealism and action which coaxed each of the nations along the
path of democracy and which guarantees the security of each from armed
attack through a variety of formal security arrangements.
That means an "enemy" rocket lobbed into a downtown square of Taipei,
Seoul or Tokyo would require United States response and possibly trigger
the new century's first war in Asia.
No one, least of all Japanese, want to utter or hear such words but
logic and responsibility demand that such eventualities be considered.
On March 18, eligible voters from the 21,908,135 population of the
Republic of China on Taiwan will elect a President to succeed Lee Teng-Hui.
On April 13, qualified voters from among 46,416,796 South Koreans will
vote in parliamentary elections which will decide if President Kim Dae-jung
will have a chance at fulfilling his platform--include ing the creative
"sunshine policy" toward North Korea-- or if he will become that most
pathetic of political birds, a lame duck, before his term of office is
over in 2003.
Sometime in 2000, by mandate, a general election must be held in Japan,
with voters drawn from a population of 125,931,533. Prime Minister Keizo
Obuchi would like to orchestrate events so that the voting is held after
he presides as host at the G-8 Summit of industrialized nations to be held
on Okinawa in July . The opposition, led most visibly by Stanford
University engineering graduate and Democratic Party chief Yukio
Hatoyama, wants to dissolve the Diet right away and hold elections even
before the Golden Week holiday in May.
There is no certainty that the once-vaunted Liberal Democratic Party of
Obuchi would be able to
do well enough in the election to form a ruling coalition. A loss would
have a strong effect on U.S.-Japan security ties, just as the nation
seems in the mood to begin debate on rewriting the
American-inspired constitution.
American security commitment to the Republic of China on Taiwan was
iron-bound until 1978 by a Mutual Security Treaty. That relationship was
replaced in 1979 with the drafting of the Taiwan Relations Act.
Under this agreement, which is a hedge against the provisions of the
several communiques signed by the U.S. and People's Republic of China, a
missile attack on Taiwan would call for U.S.. intervention.
The threat of such an attack during the presidential election of 1996
led the U.S. to reply by sending two aircraft carriers to blunt
symbolically the Chinese threat.
The elements for a repeat of that scenario are present and could be
repeated periodically until the Chinese feel it is no longer necessary for
them to "blink" when faced with American power.
The various missile proposals, including Theater Missile Defense, now
being considered, involve Japan in most formats but also are seen as
umbrellas for defense of only Taiwan or only South Korea.
The elections themselves are a political scientist's' dream and will
provide material for several dozen academic papers. Spice is added by the
fact that his is a U.S. Presidenial elecion year.
Perhaps too much speculation is devoted to security aspects of these
three political situations.
When the sun sets on the last of the three ballottings, the likely
winner will be democracy, not somebody's army.
The concurrent military threat will continue until China comes around
to some democratic position, giving regional cooperation priority over
nationalism. The party leaders in China fear openness
which would loosen their grip on power.
We see, in fact, that the Chinese Communist Party is having trouble
coping with the internet and with the ramifications of the new cyberage.
Could it be that a youth-driven information society will be instrumental in
the democratization of China?
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.