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U.S. has much at stake as watershed elections near in Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan


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By Edward Neilan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

February 9, 2000

TOKYO -- Three watershed elections, each with intense significance for democratic progress in the region, will be held in Asia this year.

The United States will be among the most interested observers at the three exercises in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. It was, after all, American idealism and action which coaxed each of the nations along the path of democracy and which guarantees the security of each from armed attack through a variety of formal security arrangements.

That means an "enemy" rocket lobbed into a downtown square of Taipei, Seoul or Tokyo would require United States response and possibly trigger the new century's first war in Asia.

No one, least of all Japanese, want to utter or hear such words but logic and responsibility demand that such eventualities be considered. On March 18, eligible voters from the 21,908,135 population of the Republic of China on Taiwan will elect a President to succeed Lee Teng-Hui.

On April 13, qualified voters from among 46,416,796 South Koreans will vote in parliamentary elections which will decide if President Kim Dae-jung will have a chance at fulfilling his platform--include ing the creative "sunshine policy" toward North Korea-- or if he will become that most pathetic of political birds, a lame duck, before his term of office is over in 2003.

Sometime in 2000, by mandate, a general election must be held in Japan, with voters drawn from a population of 125,931,533. Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi would like to orchestrate events so that the voting is held after he presides as host at the G-8 Summit of industrialized nations to be held on Okinawa in July . The opposition, led most visibly by Stanford University engineering graduate and Democratic Party chief Yukio Hatoyama, wants to dissolve the Diet right away and hold elections even before the Golden Week holiday in May.

There is no certainty that the once-vaunted Liberal Democratic Party of Obuchi would be able to do well enough in the election to form a ruling coalition. A loss would have a strong effect on U.S.-Japan security ties, just as the nation seems in the mood to begin debate on rewriting the American-inspired constitution.

American security commitment to the Republic of China on Taiwan was iron-bound until 1978 by a Mutual Security Treaty. That relationship was replaced in 1979 with the drafting of the Taiwan Relations Act.

Under this agreement, which is a hedge against the provisions of the several communiques signed by the U.S. and People's Republic of China, a missile attack on Taiwan would call for U.S.. intervention.

The threat of such an attack during the presidential election of 1996 led the U.S. to reply by sending two aircraft carriers to blunt symbolically the Chinese threat.

The elements for a repeat of that scenario are present and could be repeated periodically until the Chinese feel it is no longer necessary for them to "blink" when faced with American power.

The various missile proposals, including Theater Missile Defense, now being considered, involve Japan in most formats but also are seen as umbrellas for defense of only Taiwan or only South Korea.

The elections themselves are a political scientist's' dream and will provide material for several dozen academic papers. Spice is added by the fact that his is a U.S. Presidenial elecion year.

Perhaps too much speculation is devoted to security aspects of these three political situations.

When the sun sets on the last of the three ballottings, the likely winner will be democracy, not somebody's army.

The concurrent military threat will continue until China comes around to some democratic position, giving regional cooperation priority over nationalism. The party leaders in China fear openness which would loosen their grip on power.

We see, in fact, that the Chinese Communist Party is having trouble coping with the internet and with the ramifications of the new cyberage. Could it be that a youth-driven information society will be instrumental in the democratization of China?

Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

February 9, 2000


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