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TOKYO -- This is a make-or break, all-or-nothing political year for
Japanese Prime Minister
Keizo Obuchi.
He has the challenge and opportunity to become the best-known Japanese
leader in a decade.
All he needs to do is lead a recovery by the sputtering Japanese
economy which is still the world's second largest, steer a precarious
three-party coalition through heavy seas to victory in a general election
which must be held by October, host a Group of Eight Summit meeting in July
that has enough divisive issues to draw protesters that would make
Seattle's recent World Trade Organization uproar seem like a high school
pep rally by comparison.
"If Obuchi can pull it off, he deserves a medal" said a Western
diplomat now retired in Kamakura. The diplomat, who has watched Japanese
political wars since the days of Prime Minister Nobosuke Kishi, added
"Obuchi will get more opposition than expected from two sources--one is
apathy, the other is Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party, which has a very
clean image."
Obuchi has announced a rare pubic relations wrinkle to help boost
morale. The government will issue a new yen 2000 bill soon to "mark the
start of the new millennium." The new bank note, the first to be issued in
41 years, will include the design of Shureimon, the gate of Shuri Castle in
Okinawa Prefecture, the venue for the G-8 Summit.
If Obuchi, 62, fails, he will be assigned to political oblivion.
Such a simplistic view, as held by many foreigners, disregards the
nuances, swerves of the boys in the back room, factional gymnastics and
such key elements as where candidates' relatives are dispersed. But it
does take into account that Obuchi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is
having trouble attracting urban voters.
The unreliability of coalition partners Liberal Party, with its
mercurial leader Ichiro Ozawa, and the New Komeito, only serve to
complicate matters for the once-mighty LDP.
Supposing Obuchi avoids an election this spring, he will face a raft of
international vexations in coping with the G-8 Summit.
Staging the event in remote Okinawa was supposed to be a public
relations master stroke. It gives Okinawans some face but the flip side is
the potential difficulty handling crowds of protesters seeking to
influence delegates from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Russia
and the United States. Japan, as the only Asian member, has pledged to
look out for the interests of Asian nations.
Japanese officials are said to want to get the new WTO trade round
underway before the Okinawa summit.
There is concern that the summit could disintegrate into a scene
similar to the protests by activists opposing free trade that led to the
collapse of the WTO ministerial meeting in Seattle early in December.
Popular protests could be held over U.S. military bases in Okinawa
where residents want reduction of the U.S. military facilities there.
A Kyodo News Service analysis said "On China, Obuchi apparently has
yet to make up his mind over German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's
proposal to invite Chinese President Jiang Zemin to the Okinawa summit.
Some Japanese officials seem to think inviting Jiang would help ease
tensions between China and Taiwan. Others disagree saying a dispute could
be rekindled between Beijing and Tokyo over the Japanese defense guidelines
that allow Japan's Self-Defense Forces to provide logistics support to the
U.S. military during emergencies.
Japan is concerned that China may make some kind of military action
prior to Taiwan's March 18 presidential elections.
Russia and North Korea are two other problem areas for Japan for which
the illusion of change and improvement are greater than the reality.
Edward Neilan (eneilan@crisscross.com) is a veteran journalist, based in Tokyo, who covers East Asia and writes weekly for World Tribune.com.