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Saddam over the barrel?


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

December 6, 2000

UNITED NATIONS — When Saddam Hussein turned off his country's oil spigot, attempting to extract a price "surcharge" world markets did not seem to care, and in fact fell. So while Baghdad's short lived brinksmanskip soon turned again to wily smiles, the fact stands that Iraq remains a major Middle Eastern petroleum producer and thus a force to be carefully monitored.

The UN Security Council has renewed yet another six month Oil for Food Program extension, the tightly scripted plan allowing food and humanitarian supplies to be sold to the sanctions strapped Iraqis in return for their coveted Black Gold. In the past six months, Iraq pumped 376 million barrels of both Basrh light and Kirkuk crude earning $9.7 billion.

In effect since December 1996, the UN's Oil for Food program has so far seen Iraq pump 2.2 billion barrels to a thirsty American, European and Japan market and has brought $39 billion in revenues for Baghdad — minus a hefty fee to cover the reparations for the past occupation of Kuwait.

Though the Iraqi regime still suffers from the noose of UN sanctions stemming from the 1990 invasion and occupation of Kuwait, Saddam has looked to his oil wealth — and an insatiable dependency in industrial democracies — to gain increasing flexibility for his isolated regime.

Thought the U.S. and Britain still play hardball with Iraq at least in the Security Council, a clear softening of diplomatic resolve from Russia, China and France has long eroded the once tough cordon sanitarire round Iraq. Besides favoring a weakening of the economic embargo, these countries coincidentally also profit nicely from most of the UN monitored sales of oil industry spare parts, food and medicine to Bagdad. Quid pro Quo?

Being a classic Arab nationalist and dictator of the old school, Saddam has not had the finesse to allow UN arms inspectors back into Iraq even for a little peak at now sanitized and rehidden weapons sites. Playing the card of sovereignty has its cachet, but permitting a quickie UN inspection, would help along a quicker crumbling of resolve of many states. This may be the straw breaking the camel's back.

International solidarity against Iraq is fast evaporating like the desert dew even from some close American allies such as Jordan and Turkey. Add the new element of the Palestinian Intifada II on the West Bank and Gaza, and one finds a regional political situation favoring Saddam's revolutionary rhetoric.

Though air links to Baghdad are not officially open, many flights are going back into Saddam International; cross border truck trade is an open sieve, and the legal oil revenues keep pouring in. Tragically the Iraqi people still face serious food and medicine deprecations while Saddam and his sleazy coterie make a handsome profit in the black market.

Typically Iraq pumps just over two million barrels a day; wider production is hampered by a dilapidated oil industry which needs more technology, spare parts and exploration. Traditionally France, Russia and China have been major supplier for the spare parts.

Interestingly India, has been thawing ties with Iraq. During a recent visit by Iraqi vice President Taha Yassin Ramadham to New Delhi, Iraq announced it would purchase grain and wheat in exchange for oil. Likewise Indian firms will develop the Tuba oilfield in Iraq. Given India's long-standing behind the scenes influence at the UN and among the non-aligned states, such a seachange is significant and troubling.

Naturally going a step further, reemerging Russian entente with Iraq puts the matter into a decidedly more dangerous picture.

While Washington's static Iraq policy has been on autopilot for quite some time, be assured that Saddam Hussein will take a special pleasure in provoking the new American President. Should it be George W. Bush, the game will be all the more interesting.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

December 6, 2000


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