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UNITED NATIONS -- I seem to recall that not long ago there was a place where ethnic Moslems were being routed from their homes by government troops in search of militant separatists. Streams of fleeing refugees, those pitiful columns of women and children, were heading to an impoverished neighbor escaping what was widely touted as ethnic cleansing. Bosnia and Kosovo naturally come to mind.
Once again we witness the sonorous tones of diplomats being "deeply concerned," about a crisis in a far off land. Again, one finds the usual humanitarian agencies speaking in apocalyptic terms about a crisis seen as a macabre re-run of the Balkans on TV. All this now appears to the wintry backdrop of blowing snow, pervasive mud, and 200,000 refugees huddled round makeshift fires. Welcome to the Caucasus.
The current Russian military onslaught in the breakaway Caucasian republic of Chechnya has produced a frightful imagery which evokes the recent Balkan wars. Moscow argues that its opposing a radical Islamic terrorists--many from outside the region--who wish to further dismantle Russia. The locals, including a genuinely criminal minority, seek autonomy. Neither side plays by the Marquis of Queensbury rules. The ever vigilant West--including the U.S., Britain, and France--have until recently engaged in little more than diplomatic dawdling over the humanitarian tragedy.
Russia's war against Chechnya jepopdises the stability of the entire Caucasian region rightly warned Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. British Prime Minister Tony Blair and NATO's new Secretary General George Robertson, both former doves turned hawks on Kosovo call for a "political solution." Naturally President Bill Clinton can't fathom why the Russians and Chechens all can't get along.
But the very voices who glibly demonised Serbia found that it was infinitely easier attacking and isolating Belgrade who after all does not possess a massive nuclear arsenal, nor owe American and German banks billions in probably unpayable loans, or hold a veto as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.. May we call this subtle diplomatic leverage?
Moscow's military, despite taking a drubbling by the Chechens a few years back looks to a rematch not so much as it fears the genie of separatism in the Caucuses but because Chechnya and Dagestan are the nexus of petroleum pipelines which run from the rich oil fields of Azerbaijan to the Black Sea. Realistically, Russia needs to keep this transit route open.
But pipeline politics aside, Moscow's military is in a power bid with the civilian authority, that of President Boris Yeltsin and his KGB pedigree Premier Vladimir Putin. With legislative elections approaching never mind next year's Presidential poll, Russia's Chechen war seems managable and politically popular. Since seizing Pristina Airport during the final act of the Kosovo war, the Russian military has assumed a prouder and more prominent role in the Kremlin's bodypolitic. Vladimir Averchev of the moderate Yabloko movement, warns that the war brings together a dangerous mix of militarists and nationalists as a potent political force.
London's Financial Times opines, "Russia simply claims it is behaving like NATO over Kosovo. But with every passing day, it appears to be behaving more like Milosevic's Serbian forces, attacking an ethnic group, rather than defending humanitarian ideals."
Moscow's not in the game of good global PR as much as tightening the noose on the breakaway Chechen Republic and its civilians and extracting maximum political reward in Russia's upcoming elections. Half the rebel region's population has been forced from its homes.
On the international side don't look to the UN Security Council to pass even a feelgood resolution which after all would interfere in a Russian internal matter. Beijing particularly appreciates this nuance and will back up Moscow in the U.N. if necessary.
The upcoming Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Summit in Istanbul provides the perfect venue for Western politicos not to glibly grandstand but to calmly but forcefully explain to Russia's that its actions in the Caucasus have political and financial consequences--for the Kremlin.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues who writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
