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UNITED NATIONS -- Has the Chinese dragon tempered its wrath towards Taiwan?
Superficially it would seem so as the leading Mainland military official
indicated that the People's Republic's white heat desire to "liberate
Taiwan" may not be the first order of business for Beijing's Marxist
Mandarins. Business is, at least for now.
China's conciliatory moves came during the visit to Beijing by U.S.
Defense Secretary William Cohen--while China made the usual political
pronouncements concerning the "renegade province Taiwan" they toned down
the usual tub thumping jingoism. Defense Minister General Chi Hao-tien said
that while the communists reserve the right to use force to reunite Taiwan
with China under the plan of "one country,two systems," at least for now
"There is no intent to use force." In the anxious aftermath of the May
inauguration of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian whose past political
rhetoric threatened to ignite the tinderbox of the Taiwan/Mainland
standoff, such was political balm.
Why was General Chi, being so nice? Despite having to swallow pride,
the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is firmly under--the Communist Party of
China (CCP) who wants the Normal Trade Relations legislation to pass the
U.S. Senate. While the House gave People's China clear commercial sailing
into American markets in a May vote, the Senate--presumed a shoe-in--has
been dragging its legislative feet on the deal.
Beijing needs the NTR commercial agreement and thus will allow the PLA to
make a few rhetorical purrs to impress official Washington.
Presently Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) is sponsoring legislation designed
to stem Chinese nuclear proliferation--especially to places like Pakistan.
According to The Financial Times, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott,
"strongly supports Thompson's initiative, has signaled his desire to hold a
vote on that bill before proceeding to the China trade legislation, that in
turn has raised alarm bells among Democratic Senators." The Financial
Times adds, that Democratic Senators "fear that the passage of such
legislation would imperil the trade relationship with China."
Moreover, the PLA is realistically in no position NOW to attack Taiwan
and win. Worse for the PLA was Washington's clear hand in the
cancellation of a contract for a AWACS airborne radar Israel was building
for the Chinese. While a Russian aircraft was the platform for the Phalcon
command center, inclusion of high tech avionics would have made this a
formidable threat to Taiwan and potentially to the U.S. should there be
renewed tensions in the Taiwan Straits. The U.S. was prudent to press
Israel to sidetrack the aircraft deal.
The election of ROC President Chen Shui-bian, whose once openly
pro-Taiwan DPP independence party gained a plurality in a three way race,
once threatened to bring the pot to a boil, but Chen's commonsense and
practical nature has cooled tempers and emotions to everybody's benefit.
While engaging the in the polemical parlor game of the meaning of One
China/two political personalities, entities, governments etc., Chen has
purged the phrase "Taiwan independence" from his vocabulary.
And let's not overlook trade between the estranged Chinese cousins.
Despite the political bad blood between Beijing and the Republic of China
on Taiwan, the business bottom line remains booming--Taiwan is a major
investor on the Mainland to the tune of over $40 billion. Both Chinese
cousins have strong trade and investment commercial links. Indeed the
hidden hand of the market has bypassed politicians in both Beijing and
Taipei.
While General Chi Hao-tien's remarks are significant, they are not the
that of the political ruling CCP. Furthermore, the PLA seeing its still
weaker position towards Taiwan, is using the time honored game of shadow
boxing with Washington to soothe Senate sensibilities and to gain approval
of the trade deal and score a victory on the political front.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
