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UNITED NATIONS -- The problem with free elections, as Robert Mugabe recently discovered, is that they may not work out quite as you planned them -- even with the customary cheating, rigging, and intimidation. So when Zimbabwe recently went to the polls, President Mugabe's machine was ready to deliver another glorious victory for the boss only to discover that the people had other ideas.
Though the incumbent ZANU party delivered a narrow win, the old Mugabe magic was broken -- a newly formed opposition the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) profiting as much by Mugabe's economic foibles as well as regional and tribal frictions, snapped the hold of one party rule in this southern African land.
At independence in 1980, Zimbabwe inherited a once robust Rhodesian economy and was prudent enough to not to let rash
revolutionary rhetoric to be put into actual practice. But as the economy floundered, Mugabe decided to play his classic Marxist racial and economic cards blaming varied players -- white farmers (less than one percent of the population), British colonialists (naturally), and of course the international bankers.
As Zimbabwe's once strong economy went into freefall this year after the government turned up the racist drumbeat against the farmers, and Mugabe went one farther -- orchestrating the physical occupation of many farms across the country along with selected murder and intimidation of the workers.
The parliamentary elections themselves were just short of the predictable farce orchestrated in one party states -- monitors from the European Union described the vote "unfair"; election observers from the U.S. including the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute were refused accreditation. Moreover, the United Nations, a regular monitor in so many elections, sent no observers to view the vote.
As the Economist stated acerbically, "In a free and fair election, the ruling party would stand no chance. Mr. Mugabe's government is violent, corrupt, incompetent and detested. But ZANU enjoys the advantage of incumbency -- state-owned media applaud its unrealistic manifesto, free land, free houses, jobs for all."
Needless to say intimidation had the desired effect; the ruling ZANU party won 62 of the 120 contested Parliamentary seats. Needless to say Comrade Robert Mugabe as he is known, has retained his tenure in the pantheon of thugs.
The Financial Times cautioned editorially, "Zimbabwe's election produced as Pyrrhic victory for Robert Mugabe and a moral triumph for the opposition and a dilemma for Morgan Tsvangirai, its leader. "
Despite emerging as a powerful political opposition, MDC faces the crumbling economy where the per capita income has fallen from $740 at independence to $575 today; where inflation jumped from seven percent to seventy, and the value of the Zimbabwe dollar at $1.58 crashed to just under three cents. Add a fifty percent unemployment rate and the ravages of AIDS and one confronts a manmade disaster in this resource rich land.
Indeed while the Movement for Democratic Change has scored a remarkable victory for democracy in Africa -- actually the second time this year as it thwarted the dictator's plans for the State to seize white farms in a earlier constitutional flim flam bid -- Morgan Tsvangirai, must use his trade union skills in avoid being compromised by the regime's power.
Zimbabwe's magnificent Victoria Falls sends the mighty Zambezi River thundering on its way to the Indian Ocean; below the cascade are swirling whirlpools and treacherous undertows. In navigating Zimbabwe's political waters, the MDC must sail carefully not to be pulled down by the undertow which can swamp both the regime and its opponents in a nasty twist of fate.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
