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UNITED NATIONS -- Sir Winston Churchill once jibed, "Jaw, Jaw is better than
War, War. " The late British statesman's advice certainly applies to the
divided Korean peninsula with one of the world's most militarized
frontiers, thus presenting one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.
Despite the defense standoff along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) dividing
South and North Korea along the 38th parallel, there's an apparent thaw in
the once frigid relations between both Korean governments.
Whether the historic 'Sunshine Summit' between the South and North Korean
leaders melts the frozen reaches of the Korean peninsula and brings about a
political Tsunami swamping the Democratic People's Republic of Korea regime
remains to be seen. Or will a dizzying euphoria over a "changed" DPRK lead
to dangerous misperceptions in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo?
For 38,000 American forces stationed along the DMZ,and the geopolitical
stakes for the USA, Japan and all East Asia, a dose of diplomacy is
certainly welcome given the dangerous wild-card potential of the DPRK
regime. Yet even should there be political moves towards unification,
bridging the economic gap between North and South Korea remains far more
formidable than the task faced by a reunited Germany in 1990.
Viewing the pictures of the extravagant reception communist North Korea
gave its capitalist cousins from the South last week, one may never guess
that there's more than a half century of ideological bad blood between
them. South Korean President Kim Dae-jung was feted in the North Korean
capital Pyongyang by the Supreme leader of Democratic People's Republic of
Korea, the reclusive Kim Jong-il.
Just prior to this Kimaraderie as The Economist called it, Jong-il
ventured to China for a little comradely advice; he likely got a dressing
down. Beijing told him to open up and play along with the rich southern
cousins or else. Now Jong-il plays the role of the gregarious dictator.
Why? China fears a large influx of refugees from the famine stricken
North, already over 100,000 North Korean are foraging in China's Jilin
province in search of food and a marginally better life.
The divided peninsula remains the vortex of great power interests in East
Asia, Beijing holds the fulcrum for that balance of power. China wishes to
reassert its traditional sphere of influence over Korea as to thwart
American, Russian and especially Japanese interests. Likewise the PRC does
not want Pyongyang's backyard ballistic missile projects to encourage a
US/Japan Space defense shield.
The political choreography witnessed in Pyongyang however, the awe
inspiring motorcade with throngs of on-cue cheering proletariat, the
goose-stepping North Korean troops, and the spectacular show put on by Kim
Jong-Il was staged to impress but recall that deep ideological divisions
remain. Still the fact that estranged Korean cousins are speaking for the
first time in fifty years is significant. Moves allowing divided family
reunions and opening wider trade and investment ties, are key confidence
building measures.
But let's return to history for a moment to recall that after WWII Korea
was divided North/ South between the Soviets and the U.S. In the North,
Josef Stalin's hand picked proxy Kim Il-sung established the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea. In the South the U.S. ensured that longtime
nationalist Syngmun Rhee would rule the newly founded Republic of Korea.
By 1950 Korea peninsula was not on the geopolitical radar screens of U.S.
policy planners; the North Koreans and the Soviets seeing this glaring gap
gained the confidence that Washington would do nothing should North Korea
invade the South.
On 25 June 1950, Jong-il's father invaded the South which led to the UN
peace enforcement action better known as the Korean War. The USA and
fifteen other nations including Canada, France, Turkey and South Africa,
thwarted Kim Il-sung's communists turning the tide after a brutal and
devastating three year conflict.
The symbolism is surrealistic. Misperceptions over whether Washington
would defend South Korea proved disastrous in June 1950. Equally today one
must not allow gushy goodwill and euphoria to overrule prudence in dealing
with Pyongyang. Diplomacy should be encouraged by all means, but so too
should defense preparedness.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
