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UNITED NATIONS -- In what has now become nearly a pro forma ritual, the UN
Security Council has renewed Iraq's Oil for Food program, a plan under
which Iraqi petroleum is sold in exchange for food and humanitarian
supplies. Yet behind the scenes, diplomatic wrangles reveal deep rifts
between the US and Britain and other Council members such as People's China
and Russia regarding the wider issue of renewed UN arms inspections which
could ultimately lead to the lifting of economic sanctions against
Baghdad. The embargo dates from Saddam's 1990 Invasion of Kuwait.
A few months ago, the UN appointed Dr. Hans Blix, a Swede, as its new
supremo, to coordinate weapons inspection teams inside Iraq. Clearly a
compromise candidate, for Blix the issue is not one of competence but of
mandate.
As this column has stated, "There seems to be an almost unwritten caveat
that Blix has a clear mandate, but just don't discover too much. Naturally
there's a quid pro quo for Iraq too, Should Saddam come clean on his
extensive weapons program, the tough UN sponsored sanctions strangling Iraq
will be suspended and ultimately lifted."
There's a common sense element for Saddam, or is there? Even superficial
cooperation from Baghdad would erode international consensus which would
lead to calls for suspending the sanctions. Logically if Saddam were clean
of chemical and biological weapons, why not cooperate and upstage your
critics?
In the past six months Baghdad generated $8.5 billion in oil sales through
the tightly scripted UN plan in which revenues fund Iraq's medical and
humanitarian needs and also pay reparations for the Iraqi occupation of
Kuwait. Nonetheless, the high global demand for Baghdad's black gold--the
Basra light and Kirkuk crude--have brought barrels of benefits to Saddam.
Given the authoritarian nature of his rule, the western sanctions
ironically have a double-edged effect as they often solidify support for
the regime as well as line the pockets of Saddam's entourage.
Since the Oil for Food program was initiated in late 1996 in response to
the serious humanitarian crisis in the Arab land, Saddam has amassed $25
billion in legal revenues--this does not account for his illegal oil sales
and sanctions busting which have become a honed art by Saddam's sleazy
coterie in both his family and security circles.
New weapons inspection teams are now being rebuilt but there's a general
understanding that the tough approach and tone of the former Australian
director Richard Butler will simply not be part of the game plan. Renewed
inspections are set for August or September. Note the timing.
The U.S. Presidential elections will be gearing for its post Party
convention-
end run phase. Saddam, a wily dictator never willing to pass on a chance to
muddy the waters, will likely play cat and mouse with the inspectors who
may be lured into provocations. Naturally the US will posture with
military power to force Saddam to follow the "will of the international
community." In 1998, Baghdad's blocking of arms inspections led to Bill
Clinton's December bombing of Iraq thus ending UNSCOM inspections.
Ominously there has been no on-site monitoring since.
There are interesting elements at play. Following the death of longtime
Syrian leader Hafez al-Assad, Saddam becomes the last of the Arab tough guy
nationalist dictators. As self-proclaimed leader of the Arab masses, he may
play a renewed rhetorical role which can easily put him at loggerheads with
what he calls "Anglo/American imperialist arms inspections."
Likewise with the presumed nomination of George W. Bush as the Republican
Presidential candidate, Saddam will not forgive nor forget the personal
animus and visceral hatred of the Bush family--recall in Saddams's world,
the family/clan side of politics means more than the geopolitical. It was
President George Bush after all, who humiliatingly smashed Saddam's dream
of ruling Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Hopefully the upcoming UN arms inspections will be permitted and shall
finally
rid Iraq of the weapons of mass destruction. Realistically don't count on
it; Saddam will likely resume a shellgame using his tested skills at
manipulation and confrontation. An October surprise may be in the offing.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
