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UNITED NATIONS -- While the Beijing dragon has been huffing, puffing, and
blustering over the outcome of Taiwan's recent elections, the inauguration
of Taipei's new president Chen Shui-bian happily proved something of an
anti-climax. Democracy and the peaceful transfer of political power are
firmly established on Taiwan, but the international climate surrounding
what the People's of Republic of China regards as a "renegade province,"
remains as unpredictable as ever.
Taiwan may be in the eye of a storm; there's a temporary calm but the
political winds surrounding the island and the turgid Taiwan Straits have
not totally passed, given PRC pressure tactics against the Republic of
China and the constant danger that the USA can get pulled into the vortex
of this East Asian gale.
Taipei's new President Chen Shui-bain was scrupulously careful not to
leave any ambiguity that he wants to stir the maelstrom of PRC emotions;
especially given his own parties pro-separatist rhetoric in the past. The
flashpoint remains as ever, Beijing's arrogant and spurious claim that
Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China. Any move to change this
status--whatever its merits--risks military attack.
Chen was careful to calibrate his stand and made a number of key
commitments in his inauguration address. According to Hong Kong's South
China Morning Post, he stated categorically that providing Beijing did not
use military force against Taipei, Taiwan would:
Yet, despite all the West's rationalization and feel good emotions about a
"changed China" never underestimate the white heat of communist China's
emotions regarding Taiwan's status. Realistically China has been divided
since 1949 when Mao's communists seized the Mainland and the Nationalist
government moved to Taiwan. The ensuing sovereignty debate was always
carefully choreographed within the script of "One China," albeit in the
particular vision of each of the antagonists. Until recently.
While the definition of "China" has evolved over the years, especially
during Taiwan's meteoric rise of prosperity and democracy, the political
fault line remains Taipei's commitment to a vision of "China." That
political constant changed with the election of President Chen, whose once
openly pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), jolted the
status quo like a political earthquake.
Taipei's prestigious China Post stated editorially, "The One China
principle should not be taboo for Chen...he should have the courage to say
he supports the `one China' principle. Of course he must assert that "one
China by no means refers to the People's Republic of China. It is a future
China--when freedom, democracy and equitable prosperity prevail in all of
China." The Post added, "To avert a looming crisis, the new President
should have no qualms about saying he supports "one China" as long as it
does not mean the PRC, but a future China to be reunited in democracy."
Beijing is on good behavior because of the trade debate in USA and an
implicit understanding that openly provoking a conflict in East Asia is bad
for business; especially its lucrative $70 billion trade surplus with the
USA!
The USA and Japan have been feverishly working behind the scenes to
persuade President Chen to temper his rhetoric and more significantly keep
the PRC dragon at bay. Part of the sweetener for Beijing Marxist
Mandarins remains Congressional approval of "normal trading status" with
the U.S. in which communist China can be assured of even bigger trade
surpluses.
The "One China" definition of course has many interpretations but to
Beijing's leadership circles there's a single minded determination to bring
Taiwan under the thumb of the People's Republic, something which has eluded
the communists since 1949. Free China on Taiwan is right to oppose this
dictat. The U.S. is strategically prudent not to play with a dangerously
delicate status quo.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.