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Taiwan in the eye of the storm


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

May 24, 2000

UNITED NATIONS -- While the Beijing dragon has been huffing, puffing, and blustering over the outcome of Taiwan's recent elections, the inauguration of Taipei's new president Chen Shui-bian happily proved something of an anti-climax. Democracy and the peaceful transfer of political power are firmly established on Taiwan, but the international climate surrounding what the People's of Republic of China regards as a "renegade province," remains as unpredictable as ever.

Taiwan may be in the eye of a storm; there's a temporary calm but the political winds surrounding the island and the turgid Taiwan Straits have not totally passed, given PRC pressure tactics against the Republic of China and the constant danger that the USA can get pulled into the vortex of this East Asian gale.

Taipei's new President Chen Shui-bain was scrupulously careful not to leave any ambiguity that he wants to stir the maelstrom of PRC emotions; especially given his own parties pro-separatist rhetoric in the past. The flashpoint remains as ever, Beijing's arrogant and spurious claim that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China. Any move to change this status--whatever its merits--risks military attack.

Chen was careful to calibrate his stand and made a number of key commitments in his inauguration address. According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, he stated categorically that providing Beijing did not use military force against Taipei, Taiwan would:

  • not declare independence
  • not change the official national title (from the Republic of China)
  • not change the constitution to include a controversial "State to State" theory pushed by former President Lee
  • not hold a referendum to change the status quo between Beijing and Taipei.

Yet, despite all the West's rationalization and feel good emotions about a "changed China" never underestimate the white heat of communist China's emotions regarding Taiwan's status. Realistically China has been divided since 1949 when Mao's communists seized the Mainland and the Nationalist government moved to Taiwan. The ensuing sovereignty debate was always carefully choreographed within the script of "One China," albeit in the particular vision of each of the antagonists. Until recently.

While the definition of "China" has evolved over the years, especially during Taiwan's meteoric rise of prosperity and democracy, the political fault line remains Taipei's commitment to a vision of "China." That political constant changed with the election of President Chen, whose once openly pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), jolted the status quo like a political earthquake.

Taipei's prestigious China Post stated editorially, "The One China principle should not be taboo for Chen...he should have the courage to say he supports the `one China' principle. Of course he must assert that "one China by no means refers to the People's Republic of China. It is a future China--when freedom, democracy and equitable prosperity prevail in all of China." The Post added, "To avert a looming crisis, the new President should have no qualms about saying he supports "one China" as long as it does not mean the PRC, but a future China to be reunited in democracy."

Beijing is on good behavior because of the trade debate in USA and an implicit understanding that openly provoking a conflict in East Asia is bad for business; especially its lucrative $70 billion trade surplus with the USA!

The USA and Japan have been feverishly working behind the scenes to persuade President Chen to temper his rhetoric and more significantly keep the PRC dragon at bay. Part of the sweetener for Beijing Marxist Mandarins remains Congressional approval of "normal trading status" with the U.S. in which communist China can be assured of even bigger trade surpluses.

The "One China" definition of course has many interpretations but to Beijing's leadership circles there's a single minded determination to bring Taiwan under the thumb of the People's Republic, something which has eluded the communists since 1949. Free China on Taiwan is right to oppose this dictat. The U.S. is strategically prudent not to play with a dangerously delicate status quo.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

May 24, 2000


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