Collateral damage from Chinese embassy bombing

May 16, 1999

UNITED NATIONS -- NATO’s tragic mistake of bombing China’s Belgrade Embassy has triggered the white heat of emotional tirades throughout the Chinese mainland and has more ominously clouded Western diplomatic attempts to end the Balkan war. Thus, while NATO’s monumental military blunder in the heart of Belgrade cannot be undone, the diplomatic collateral damage is yet to be assessed.

Besides solidifying the already strong Beijing-Belgrade political axis, the painstakingly crafted G8- Balkan Peace plan is placed in limbo. Moreover the Chinese communists have ironically been given the perfect propaganda foil to with which to deflect the upcoming tenth anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

The “spontaneous demonstrations” which engulfed the American Embassy in Beijing and some other foreign legations in China, were a classic combination of regime staging and slapped nationalist pride. The PRC’s political calculations have deemed that a little anti-foreign hysteria on the eve of the hypersensitive Tiananmen anniversary may deflect attention from China’s internal socio/economic problems. Perhaps.

Hong Kong’s respected South China Morning Post commented, “The huge scale well-orchestrated protests across the mainland are understandable. They reflect justified outrage. For the authorities in Beijing there is a certain fortuitnessess about the timing of the incident. The fury that has erupted may well serve as a distraction for those tempted to mark the approach of 4 June. But the question for Beijing now is having turned on the protest tap so effectively, can it be turned off so easily?”

Even thought the PRC regime seemingly controls the game plan, the genie of yet unforeseen circumstances can just as easily turn on the Marxist Mandarins in the Forbidden City. The last century of Chinese history is replete with examples of government instigated movements unpredictably turning in thrust and theme.

The People’s Republic will gladly play its nationalist card. Tub thumping jingoism on the eve of the Tiananmen Square massacre’s anniversary drowns out the domestic debate on political democracy and more especially socio/economic problems plaguing China. Such political theatre likewise reflects struggles inside the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) whose hardliners wish to see a showdown with Washington.

Aiming arrows at the West, has an undeniable attractions providing a sudden wind shift does not turn the debate back against the Communist Party.

For the West, the damage will be primarily diplomatic. Should the Kosovo settlement come into the corridors of the United Nations, be assured Beijing will dangle the Damocles sword of its Security Council veto to exact maximum policy concessions. Recall that Beijing’s support for Belgrade goes beyond the comradely and comes down to the realpolitik of real estate. For the Serbs, Kosovo is part of Yugoslavia just as for Beijing, both Tibet and Taiwan are part of the PRC. These are internal affairs! (sic).

The New York Times in a telling comment wrote, “Although Clinton Administration officials were confident at first that the crisis would soon blow over, they now see signs that the Chinese government may delay a UN Security Council resolution requiring an international force in Kosovo.”

Quite telling! I believe the Administration--they had no idea China would get so “upset” over a simple missile attack devastating its embassy, anymore than they can fathom widespread communist Chinese espionage in America, nor can they comprehend why the Serbs can be so ruthless to the Kosovar Albanians. Such smug sophomoric arrogance after all remains this Administration’s enduring legacy.

The comment also focuses a searing poignant lesson on both Balkan war policy and operational capability, what I call high tech hubris. Both NATO and now the CIA have tragically played right into the hands of the enemy--Bombing from three miles high and spying from space may have a certain star wars cachet, but the at the end of the day, the resources on the ground have to check and recheck such a target in an urban environment. Call it old fashioned James Bond, but it works.

Again we see the political collateral damage resulting from such actions. The Kosovo conflict increasingly has the aura of what The Economist calls “A Bungled War.” One can only assume given the players, the peace will be equally tragic.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues who writes weekly for World Tribune.com.