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UNITED NATIONS -- A decade after the Gulf War, international economic sanctions against Iraq continue to cripple the population but only hobble the leadership. Saddam is still in power despite a very comprehensive economic embargo against Iraq resulting from its invasion of Kuwait. Whether tightening the noose would finally choke-off Saddam's regime is highly improbable, especially since countries such as Russia, China and France, would much rather go back to "business as usual" with Baghdad.
While UN Secretary General Kofi Annan openly concedes that sanctions are hurting civilians, in a recent report he reviewed "the progress made in meeting the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people and on the revenues necessary to meet those needs." The Report likewise criticizes Iraq's leadership for not doing enough to ensure the adequate distribution of food to its populace.
Annan's report comes in the wake of a stinging resignation by the U.N. Baghdad point-man Hans von Sponeck of Germany who quit after a similar jumping of the sanctions ship by another U.N. overseer Denis Hailiday of Ireland.
The U.N.'s much criticized Oil for Food Program, essentially sets a tightly monitored framework for Iraqi oil to be sold in exchange for purchasing food, medicine, and other humanitarian needs. Since December 1996 the program has earned Iraq $20 billion in oil revenue, which through a complicated formula is also slated for financing new parts for the dilapidated petroleum industry, as well as a share of war reparations to Kuwait. Thirteen billion is available for humanitarian needs.
For example between 26 February and 3 March,, Iraq exported 12 million barrels of crude oil for $330 million. Naturally given today's soaring prices for petroleum, Baghdad is actually able to turn a handsome profit. The real drawback to higher production rests with the sorry state of the industry which permits $300 million of spare oil parts to be purchased every six months.
Selling Iraq spare part for its oil industry has long been a business bailiwick of French, Russian, and Chinese firms whose governments have less than coincidentally led the political charge for a lifting or loosening of the embargo.
Oil for Food is admittedly a stopgap short of lifting sanctions, something scoffed at in Washington and London but lobbied for by Paris, Moscow, Beijing and an increasing number of other states who are at best ambivalent at the sanctions weapon against Saddam. Though few states trust the wily Iraqi dictator, the U.S. and Britain are now essentially alone in their singular crusade against Saddam.
Hundreds of contracts are put on hold pending approval of a special Security Council committee. In fact, the program had delivered $6.7 billion of the $13 billion available since 1996. As the Report states, "The effectiveness of the program, however has suffered considerably not only due to shortfalls in the funding level but also due to the very large number of applications placed on hold in particular those concerning electricity, water and sanitation, transport, and telecommunications."
Though Iraq wants to increase production of the Kirkuk crude and Basrah light oil to meet the glutinous and lucrative Western demand, the reality remains that the creaky state of Iraq's petroleum industry can't keep pace with demand. European and Russian firms want to get back into Iraq but can't formally do so until sanctions are lifted of at least softened.
Yet using the "sanctions sledgehammer" can often be counterproductive. We rightly try to isolate the Baghdad regime, but we end up huring the people in whose name we wish to help. Saddam and his coetrie of sleazy blackmarketers actually turn a profit from their suffering citizens the more the international community turns the screws. Though lifting the embargo is precisely the wrong message to send to Saddam, the a way in which the embargo is applied has caused a humanitarian crisis and has engendered widening Arab support for Saddam odious rule.
Saddam can change this; he can open the door let the light shine in. Allowing genuine and comprehensive UN weapons inspections can finally close the circle, leading to a lifting of the embargo thus ending the proverbial Catch 22. While sanctions remain a blunt sledgehammer, given's the West's lack of imagination in replacing the dictator, the muddle will likely continue until after the U.S. Presidential elections.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
