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UNITED NATIONS -- There they go again! Beijing's Dragon is again huffing, puffing and blustering to intimidate voters on Taiwan as the Republic of China soon goes to the polls to elect a President. Thus while the People's Republic of China has cast an ominous shadow across the Formosa Straits, Taiwan's voters must make two choices--one which is their preferred political choice and the other being a political hedge against triggering a cross-straits conflict.
Given the bullying from Beijing, there's a genuine risk that democratic Taiwan can destabilize the status quo by doing the right thing--namely allowing its free elections to determine an outcome which is not certain to please the PRC. Given the host of contendors running in the mid-March contest, Taiwan's voters hold the key both to their future political course but also the prosperous island's continued security and well being.
Three candidates, Lien Chan from the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT), James Soong a popular independent, and former Taipei mayor Chen Shui-bian, standard-bearer of the once openly pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), are in a tight race. James Soong, a breakaway maverick from the ruling KMT with a strong populist island-wide following, seems a close favorite against the DPP's Chen.
Beijing bluntly warns that any candidate tilting towards the flashpoint of "Taiwan independence," would surely trigger new tensions. Accordingly Chen has toned down the DPP's traditional pro-independence rhetoric. Having evolved into a mainstream contender, Chen is fully aware that his words and actions must be carefully calibrated as not to provoke a pugnacious PRC.
Yet, as Taipei's respected China Post advises editorially, "The apparent change in tone, however, cannot possibly whitewash his pro-independence record, and the PRC authorities will not rest easily if his numbers continue to grow in the polls."
Recently the PRC published a "White Paper," which made Taipei see Red. The Chinese communists are demanding that Taipei negotiate for reunification of divided China--Or Else. Naturally with the PRC's absorption of Hong Kong (1997) and Macao (1999), as this column has long warned, the clock is ticking.
Beijing's policy initiative caught the Clinton Administation flatfooted; as The New York Times conceded, "White House Surprised." Few Asian analysts were.
As in 1996 when the PRC used less than subtle political coercion, along with a dose of "missile diplomacy" the tactics can certainly backfire. People on Taiwan while not wanting to provoke the dragon, equally don't want to cave into the crude diktat of Beijing's Marxist Mandarins.
In those elections, they chose President Lee Tung-hui, despite the PRC's seething displeasure. Now people across the Republic of China must elect someone who will importantly be good for Taiwan but not be perceived as being bad for Beijing. A subtle but serious contradiction to be sure.
That the PRC would try to manipulate the results of Taiwan's election remains a political given. Besides Beijing's natural distaste for democracy--especially when it is freely and almost raucously practiced by fellow Chinese they can't directly control--the desire to intimidate comes naturally, especially since the PRC regime dubiously claims the right to control this "renegade province,"and has never renounced force as an option.
Still the PRC communists must know there is an economic and political price to be paid for intimidating Taiwan, a long time American friend and ally. Despite Jimmy Carter having broken formal diplomatic and defense ties to Taiwan in 1979, Washington mainains very close de facto political, economic, and security links with Taipei.
Beijing desperately wants to gain admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as well as earn a permanent stamp of approval of the now annually contested Most Favored Nation trade status. While the controversial MFN has been renamed as Normal Trading Relations (NTR), the reality remains that Beijing's actions across the Formosa Straits will determine whether the PRC can pass the Congressional hurdles on the Potomac. The Clinton Administration is pushing Congress to give the People's Republic of China both seals of approval for more trade with the USA.
While both sides of the estranged Chinese nation have gone their separate course since national division in 1949, any change in this status remains the responsibility of the Chinese themselves. It's America's responsibility to ensure the process evolves without the use of brute force by a regime that is well versed in the art of bullying its own people.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
