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UNITED NATIONS -- Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe thought he had a sure fire electoral victory. In a constitutional referendum where the opposition had been bullied or jailed and the government offered the masses the ultimate sweetener--seizure and redistribution of white farmlands-- it seemed that passing an expansion of Presidential powers would go like clockwork. It did. After the votes were counted, Comrade Mugabe saw that his time may be up.
Even the opposition was surprised. Mugabe, in power for twenty years, suffered a humiliating defeat. A formidable 55% NO vote going as high as 75% in the capital Harare (formerly Salisbury) and second city Bulawayo was juxtaposed to the regime's 45%. On a continent tragically mired in the entrenched mistakes of political isms and often unable to break free from the socialist and collectivist path, Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia, has scored an impressive victory for democracy and common sense--however fleeting it may be.
Mugabe a longtime Marxist has skillfully played upon the divisive politics of racial animosity, economic envy, and "blame London" for anything that went wrong in this formerly prosperous British colony. He can now be expected to reinvigorate his regime as Parliamentary elections loom in April.
According to the Daily Telegraph of London, "After twenty years in power, Comrade Mugabe has succeeded in uniting industrialists and trade unions against him."
The NO campaign patched together a coalition of middle class blacks, the poor who fear getting even poorer, and the tiny white community. Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change conceded he had hardly bothered to campaign assuming the ballot would be rigged. Now there's renewed optimism that the parliamentary elections may energize and focus a fractious opposition.
The Telegraph added, "President Mugabe has been accused of running an anti- white racist campaign in a final effort to sway voters in Zimbabwe's referendum on a new constitution...amid the economic crises that has done incalculable damage to his standing, Mugabe is asking voters to back his proposals to nationalize white owned farms and formally hand greater powers to the head of state." The Economist surmised, "Mugabe sought to sugar the pill by making an issue of land and race."
Priscilla Misihairabwi, who ran the NO campaign from a prison cell advised, "This whole campaign has been based on racism." Presently there are 75,000 whites in the southern African land of 11 million. Ian Smith, former Prime Minister of white-ruled Rhodesia described the poll results as "Fantastic. We are all here together, black and white, a united country against gangsters and corruption."
Despite his crushing loss at the polls, Mugabe's regime will still press for the land grab under a dubious authority which allows the state to seize white-owned farms without compensation. Presently about half of Zimbabwe's commercial farms are owned by 4,500 white farmers. Such a move while politically possible given the high-jinx of Harare's rulers, naturally won't sit well with foreign investors or domestic critics. Nor will it alleviate the growing economic crisis which has forced Zimbabwe to go begging for aid from neighboring South Africa.
Inflation stands at 60 percent. There are fuel shortages and a huge debt. The International Monetary Fund has suspended assistance pending economic reform. Though IMF programs are criticized by most recipients, in Zimbabwe the IMF is sarcastically called "It's Mugabe's Fault."
Classically too Mugabe has stirred the caldron of Africa's regional conflicts; dispatching a 11,000 member military force to the Congo to help prop up the odious rule of Laurent Kabila. As curiously Mugabe provides sanctuary for Ethiopia's exiled dictator Col. Mengistu Mariam, whose tender charms included using famine as a weapon against his own people in the 1980's.
Beyond the obvious political sop, destroying Zimbabwe's still formidable food production capacity threatens to turn this bountiful land which feeds itself and exports moreover, into what the international community will politely come to describe as a "food donor recipient." All Zimbabweans will lose, not to mention neighboring southern African states such as Zambia and Mozambique.
Naturally Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF political party put a good spin on the loss, the Politburo arrogantly reaffirmed that the referendum was not a defeat for the Party, "Mugabe will rule this country for as long as he likes. There is no question about that." Perhaps not.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues who writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
