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UNITED NATIONS -- After rancorous behind-the-scenes deliberations, the U.N. Security Council has approved a new commissioner to head the watch-dog group monitoring Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. The green light given to Sweden's Hans Blix is certain to set the tone for the new inspection regime--to keep tempers cool. Yet, during the U.S. Presidential election campaign a sudden flare-up and confrontation with Saddam cannot necessarily be ruled out.
Just over a month ago, a divided UN Security Council approved a new arms inspection plan to take over where the moribund UNSCOM had left off. The former inspection agency was quite frankly too intrusive for most Council members tastes not to mention Saddam's. Chief Inspector William Butler of Australia, a capable no-nonsense fellow had his days numbered by his efficiency and his candor.
UNSCOM's final straw came when Iraq blocked inspections in late 1998, leading to the Clinton Administration's unleashing of air attacks on Baghdad which curiously paralleled Bill Clinton's ongoing impeachment trial in Washington.
The new U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Mission will, according to diplomatic whispers, pursue a "comprehensive but non-confrontational policy." Initial hopes that the agency could have both bark and bite were quickly dispelled when Rolf Ekeus, another Swede who distinguished himself as the Chief Arms Inspector in the early 1990's, was quickly sidelined by strong Russian, French and communist Chinese opposition inside the Security Council.
Though Washington clearly favored Ekeus, as a diplomatic foil to bring initial credibility to UNSCOM's already much maligned successor, the chips were clearly on the green felt table--Moscow, Paris and Beijing would show no quarter.
U.S./UN Envoy Richard Holbrooke had to make the best of a bad deal and support Hans Blix, clearly the compromise candidate. Though Blix has a long career with verification and inspection issues as former Chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, a Vienna-based scion of the U.N, the problem is not one of competence but of mandate.
Blix is a decent man given a frightfully dangerous portfolio; looking for Iraqi chemical, biological and nuclear capabilities. Yet, there seems almost an unwritten caveat that Blix has a clear mandate but just don't discover too much.
Naturally there a quid pro quo for Iraq too. Should Saddam finally come clean on his extensive weapons programs, the tough U.N.sponsored economic sanctions strangling Iraq will be suspended, and ultimately lifted.
The double tragedy remains that while few states support the Iraqi dictator, equally few countries support the current economic sanctions policy against Iraq which dates from the end of the Gulf War in 1991. Washington and London alone press for continuing the embargo. Diplomatic rancor towards Baghdad a decade after Saddam's invasion of Kuwait continues to dwindle.
The U.N.'s ongoing Oil-for Food program allows for now unlimited amouts of Iraqi oil to be sold in exchange for a tightly monitored package of food and medicines, and humanitarian supplies which loosen the embargo's noose. For example, during a typical week in January, Iraq exported 14 million barrels of petroleum for an estimated revenue of $346 million. Those earnings in turn may purchase humanitarian supplies.
Sadly sanctions still hurt the Iraqi people, enrich Saddam's circle of sleazy black marketers, and now increasingly paint the embargo as the U.S. and U.K. "conspiracy against the Iraqi people." The next move is up to Saddam Hussein.
Saddam, like Fidel Castro has outlasted his enemies. In a bizarre way, he profits from the sanctions and Western demonization. The chimera of Clinton's decisive policy towards Iraq is just that...an illusion, in which stage managing supplants substance.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues who writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
