World Tribune.com

Israel sees Assad falling under Iran's sway

By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, November 1, 2000

TEL AVIV — Israel is quietly concerned over the direction of Syria's new president.

Israeli officials monitoring Syrian President Bashar Assad said he appears to have come under the orbit of Iran, the long-time ally of Damascus. They said that in a departure from previous expectations Assad has increasingly embraced Iran and its ally in Lebanon, the Hizbullah militia.

As a result, the officials said, Assad has approved the resumption of weapons shipments from Iran to Hizbullah via Syria. The Syrian president has also allowed Hizbullah and its Palestinian allies to resume attacks on Israel from Lebanon.

"I detect a certain lack of ripeness," said [Res.] Maj. Gen. Uri Saguy, who headed the Israeli negotiating team with Syria earlier this year.

Assad's behavior, officials said, did not match previous Israeli assessments by the government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Barak and his aides believed that the junior Assad would focus on consolidating power and winning Western support and financial aid for his regime. This, they said, would require restraining Hizbullah.

They said Assad appeared to make his mark by improving and liberalizing the economy, a process that he is sustaining. On Sunday, Assad issued a decree that allows for the establishment of Syria's first investment bank, linked to the Economic and Foreign Trade Ministry.

Still, the officials said, Assad has been swept by the violent anti-Israeli demonstrations earlier this month amid the mini-war with the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. They said Assad feels Syria cannot stand by and appear to oppose the Arab sentiment for revenge.

At the same time, the officials said, Assad has been impressed by Hizbullah's operations against Israel. They said Hizbullah has proven what Iran had envisioned weeks after the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon on May 24: that Israeli threats to massively and immediately retaliate against continued attacks from the northern border would prove to be empty.

But the officials warn that the 35-year-old Assad, unlike his late father, might be underestimating Israel's resolve. They said Assad, out of both inexperience as well as a need to prove his radical credentials, might allow the situation in Lebanon to spin out of control. They envision increased Iranian influence in Lebanon as the price for the continued strategic alliance with Damascus.

The officials said Barak has tried diplomatic pressure on Assad. They said U.S. Egyptian, and Russian envoys told Assad of what they termed the dangers of Syria's support for Hizbullah for the entire Middle East. But Assad, the officials said, was non-commital.

Part of the reason that Assad has dismissed the appeals, the officials said, is that Europe is quietly reconciling with Syria. On Monday, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced that his government would loan Damascus $27 million. In addition, Germany agreed to restructure Syria's $1.1 billion debt to Berlin.

Israeli sources said the military has been ordered to prepare for an attack on Lebanon, including Syrian targets in that country, should Hizbullah attacks continue. They said the military is identifying potential targets while Barak urges the United States to pressure Syria to stop Hizbullah. One proposal raised by Barak, the sources said, is that Lebanon be placed on the State Department list of terrorist sponsors.

"I think that Bashar Assad is aware of the differences in strength between Israel and Syria," Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "If there is a renewal of terrorist activity, we will stop it immediately and through more severe actions."

Tuesday, October 31, 2000


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