Bashar Assad: A modern version of his brutal father

Last year, Bashar Assad held a rare meeting with Lebanese editors in Beirut. Most of them praised the son of the Syrian president, then responsible for Damascus's occupation of Lebanon.

One editor, An Nahar's Jubran Tueni, spoke up. "Under the Syrian occupation, we have lost all our freedom of independence," Tueni was quoted as telling the younger Assad. "We used to have a free press in this country."

Assad's reply was simple: "What is an independent press?" he asked. "The press has to represent the regime."

Bashar remains an unknown quality to many. But many of those who have followed him for years insist that he was groomed to be a carbon copy of his late father, Hafez Assad, who died on Saturday of heart failure at age 69.

"In terms of policy and ideas, the new Syrian leadership will not depart from those of President Assad," said Ghassan Salameh, a political science lecturer at the University of Paris. "I don't think there will be a difference between the interests of [Bashar] and those of his father."

Ahmed Jarrallah, editor in chief of the Kuwait daily Al-Siyassah, agreed. "He [Bashar] is his father's son and a graduate of his school," Jarrallah said. "He has the benefit of a young mentality, the higher ability to modernize and the total acceptance of the facts of the world."

The 34-year-old Assad had the presidency imposed on him. Until 1994, he wanted to practice ophthalmology in London and let his older brother, Basel, rule Syria. That changed when Basel was killed in either an accident or an assassination six years ago. Bashar was rushed to Syria and thus began a slow and painful grooming process for the Syrian presidency.

His supporters in the West say Bashar is shy, speaks fluent English and French, loves Western pop music and strongly believes in modernization. They also say he has a much keener interest in Israel than his father. His claim to fame so far is that he has introduced the Internet to Syria. His challenge is to battle Syria's high unemployment -- estimated at 30 percent -- overpopulation and deteriorating infrastructure and military.

"Everywhere you go in Syria, you hear a lot of criticism regarding the economy," a recent visitor to Damascus said. "Nobody actually blames Assad, but the feeling among the business elite is that this situation cannot continue for long."

Bashar's detractors say he doesn't get along with his siblings, is hesitant, trips over his words, has little feel for people and lacks the political acumen of his father. What's left is a policy of pure brutality to ensure his control of Syria.

Bashar, who at 1.90 meters towers over most people, has an older and outspoken sister, Bushra, age 39, as well as two brothers, Maher, 33, and Majjd, 32. Bashar was raised in the shadow of his dashing older brother, Basel. Bashar had little to do with his workaholic father, but was regarded as being very close to his mother, Anissa.

All of Assad's children went to university. Bashar went to medical school, apparently on the advice of his father. He completed his studies in Damascus in 1991 and went to London to specialize in ophthalmology. He was said to have mastered English and an appreciation for British tradition.

On Jan. 12, 1994, Basel was killed in a car accident. The Syrian president ordered Bashar to return home immediately and the grooming began. Bashar at first attempted to convince his father that this was a bad idea, but soon relented.

Western diplomats and Arab analysts thought the elderly president was desperate and that the timid Bashar didn't have a chance to succeed his father. Bashar's grooming for the presidency was opposed by Bushra, Maher and particularly Assad's estranged brother, Rifaat. On the other hand, Bashar was supported by his brother-in-law, Assaf Chawkat, now regarded as the second most important figure in Syria.

Assad's first task was to make his son a military officer. He began as a captain in the medical corps, underwent combat training and quickly advanced to his current rank of colonel. He followed in Basel's footsteps and was appointed divisional commander in the elite Republican Guards.

Next came the purge. Assad had kept his senior officers in service for decades because he felt their loyalty. But Bashar needed his own supporters. Out went such figures as Chief of Staff Hikmat Shihabi, now said to be in exile in Los Angeles. military intelligence chief Gen. Ali Duba and a cadres of middle-ranking officers. Duba was replaced by Bashar loyalist, Gen. Hassan Khalil,another Alawite.

Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam was not fired. He was neutralized. Khaddam lost his Lebanese portfolio to Bashar. Bashar then appointed Lebanon's current prime minister, Salim Hoss.

By last fall, Bashar moved to enemies within his family. First, his uncle, Rifaat, was stripped of his title of vice president. In October, Syrian troops stormed Rifaat's private port and headquarters in Latakia in a battle in which hundreds were reportedly killed. Rifaat was in exile but one of his sons is said to still be in Syria.

Syrian sources said Bashar has ordered that Rifaat be arrested if he enters Syria. The order called on the army to do all it can to prevent Rifaat from entering Syria, the London-based Al Hayat daily said on Monday.

The next step was a government shakeup. An anti-corruption campaign gave Bashar the excuse to purge scores of senior officials throughout Syria. This included Prime Minister Mahmoud Zohbi, who commited suicide last month. Leaders of the ruling Baath party were also replaced.

Today, Arab diplomatic sources said Bashar has the support of virtually the entire elite in Syria. The last holdout had been the ruling Baath party. Bashar's two younger brothers, Majjd and Maher, have been dismissed as either too unstable or too immature for leadership. Maher was said to have shot Chawkat in a feud last year.

Assad's younger brother, Jamil, has not been seen as a force in the Bashar succession.

Bashar's allies are Chief of Staff Gen. Ali Aslan, Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara and most important his brother, Chawkat. Chawkat has been dismissed by critics as a lightweight who is full of bluster. The Beirut-based A-Safir daily reported on Monday that Bashar assured the military that it will remain dominant in Syria.

Arab diplomatic sources said Bashar will spend his first year consolidating power. This will include ensuring that Lebanon remains firmly in Syria's orbit. Only then, will Bashar look outside of Syria and Lebanon. At that point, Bashar would consider resuming peace efforts with Israel.

On Sunday, Bashar told U.S. President Bill Clinton that he would continue his father's efforts to reach a peace agreement with Israel. Clinton telephoned Bashar to express condolences over his father's death.

But Eyal Zisser, a Syrian expert at Tel Aviv University, said Bashar is not expected to soften any of his father's demands for a full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 line, including control of the Sea of Galilee. But Zisser expects Bashar to be much more sensitive to Israeli public opinion.

"Bashar will follow much more the example of [Egyptian President Anwar] Sadat and not that of his father in this regard," Zisser said.

Former Syrian Chief Rabbi Avraham Hamra agreed. "He could be more open, but it all depends on the internal stability," he said.

But analysts and diplomats expect Bashar to be tested within the next few months in relations with both Lebanon and Iran. They said Iran will seek to tighten relations with Damascus and prevent Syria from coming under the influence of the United States.

"The first test of Bashar will be in Lebanon," an Arab diplomatic source said. "There will be pressure for Syria to withdraw, at least from the Beirut area. There will be calls for a reduction of Syrian laborers in Lebanon. At the same time, the Hizbullah and Palestinians might test their freedom of maneuver, particularly along the border with Israel."