World Tribune.com
Xybernaut

Israel writes off Assad and waits for successor

By Steve Rodan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, May 2, 2000

JERUSALEM -- The government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak has unofficially abandoned hope that Syrian President Hafez Assad will complete any peace agreement with Israel.

Government and Western diplomatic sources said both Israel and the United States have quietly concluded that the 69-year-old Assad is too ill to make any decisions regarding peace with Israel. They said Assad's illness has hardened his position regarding negotiations with Israel.

As a result, the sources said, Israel and the United States have assessed that Assad will not back down from his demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights to the lines that existed on the eve of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

"The season for peace is over," Regional Cooperation Minister Shimon Peres said. "We will have to wait for a new season. It will probably come after the U.S. elections [in November] or maybe after the succession [in Syria]."

Senior Israeli officials were told by their U.S. counterparts that the situation in Assad's palace appears increasingly tense. They said Assad's family continues to squabble over who will succeed the president despite the growing power of his 34-year-old son Bashar.

"So far, the situation is shrouded in mystery," a U.S. diplomatic source said. "There's no way to know how entrenched Bashar really is." As a result, Israeli and U.S. officials have quietly decided to wait until after the succession issue is decided before launching any new initiatives. But they said Assad's successor is not expected to be more flexible than the dying president.

U.S. officials had been planning another initiative in June to revive the Israeli-Syrian track. Instead, both countries have agreed instead to focus on the Palestinian track.

Among the scenarios being raised is that members of Assad's family will quietly invite the president's estranged brother, Rifaat, to return to Damascus. U.S. and European sources have been in touch with Rifaat in exile in Geneva.

Another scenario is that Bashar would be the nominal head of an oligarchy that would move toward the West. This is being urged by many in the Alawite elite but is opposed by Iran, the main ally of Damascus.

Regardless, officials said, the Alawite regime will have to decide quickly. Assad is seriously ill and has difficulty functioning. He has so far missed several key dates on the Syrian calendar, where he has traditionally addressed the nation.

"There is a lot of tension in Syria and criticism of the government because right now everything is paralyzed," a Western diplomatic source in Damascus said. "The economy is in terrible shape and that is a key issue."

The London-based Sunday Telegraph reports that Assad has suffered a stroke is believed to have only months to live. The newspaper said Assad's stroke came several days after his March 26 summit in Geneva with President Bill Clinton, in which the Syrian president was fortified with heavy doses of steroids.

The Telegraph said Assad's death will probably trigger a bloodbath between Rifaat and Bashar.

"The prospects for a deal with Syria under Assad already look bad, but a post-Assad Syria is likely to take a tougher stand towards the peace process because any new government will have to consolidate competing political forces in Damascus," a U.S. intelligence official told the newspaper. "If negotiations are still open at the time of succession, the Syrian side will inevitably take a hardline to keep its grip on power."

Israeli officials played down the report and said that since his stroke Assad has continued to meet visitors for short period.

For his part, Peres said a key lesson for Israel is the need to demand greater flexibility from any successor of Assad. This means, he said, the new Syrian president will have to agree to direct negotiations with Israel.

Speaking to the Foreign Press Association in Israel on Sunday, Peres referred to the refusal by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara to shake hands with Barak during U.S.-sponsored talks earlier this year. "To come to America and not shake hands with Barak," Peres said, "this can't be done again in the future."

Tuesday, May 2, 2000

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