Israel writes off Assad and waits for successor
By Steve Rodan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, May 2, 2000
JERUSALEM -- The government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak has
unofficially abandoned hope that Syrian President Hafez Assad will complete
any peace agreement with Israel.
Government and Western diplomatic sources said both Israel and the
United States have quietly concluded that the 69-year-old Assad is too ill
to make any decisions regarding peace with Israel. They said Assad's illness
has hardened his position regarding negotiations with Israel.
As a result, the sources said, Israel and the United States have
assessed that Assad will not back down from his demand for a full Israeli
withdrawal from the Golan Heights to the lines that existed on the eve of
the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
"The season for peace is over," Regional Cooperation Minister Shimon
Peres said. "We will have to wait for a new season. It will probably come
after the U.S. elections [in November] or maybe after the succession [in
Syria]."
Senior Israeli officials were told by their U.S. counterparts that the
situation in Assad's palace appears increasingly tense. They said Assad's
family continues to squabble over who will succeed the president despite the
growing power of his 34-year-old son Bashar.
"So far, the situation is shrouded in mystery," a U.S. diplomatic source
said. "There's no way to know how entrenched Bashar really is."
As a result, Israeli and U.S. officials have quietly decided to wait
until after the succession issue is decided before launching any new
initiatives. But they said Assad's successor is not expected to be more
flexible than the dying president.
U.S. officials had been planning another initiative in June to revive
the Israeli-Syrian track. Instead, both countries have agreed instead to
focus on the Palestinian track.
Among the scenarios being raised is that members of Assad's family will
quietly invite the president's estranged brother, Rifaat, to return to
Damascus. U.S. and European sources have been in touch with Rifaat in exile
in Geneva.
Another scenario is that Bashar would be the nominal head of an
oligarchy that would move toward the West. This is being urged by many in
the Alawite elite but is opposed by Iran, the main ally of Damascus.
Regardless, officials said, the Alawite regime will have to decide
quickly. Assad is seriously ill and has difficulty functioning. He has so
far missed several key dates on the Syrian calendar, where he has
traditionally addressed the nation.
"There is a lot of tension in Syria and criticism of the government
because right now everything is paralyzed," a Western diplomatic source in
Damascus said. "The economy is in terrible shape and that is a key issue."
The London-based Sunday Telegraph reports that Assad has suffered a
stroke is believed to have only months to live. The newspaper said Assad's
stroke came several days after his March 26 summit in Geneva with President
Bill Clinton, in which the Syrian president was fortified with heavy doses
of steroids.
The Telegraph said Assad's death will probably trigger a bloodbath
between Rifaat and Bashar.
"The prospects for a deal with Syria under Assad already look bad, but a
post-Assad Syria is likely to take a tougher stand towards the peace process
because any new government will have to consolidate competing political
forces in Damascus," a U.S. intelligence official told the newspaper. "If
negotiations are still open at the time of succession, the Syrian side will
inevitably take a hardline to keep its grip on power."
Israeli officials played down the report and said that since his stroke
Assad has continued to meet visitors for short period.
For his part, Peres said a key lesson for Israel is the need to
demand greater flexibility from any successor of Assad. This means, he said,
the new Syrian president will have to agree to direct negotiations with
Israel.
Speaking to the Foreign Press Association in Israel on Sunday, Peres
referred to the refusal by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara to shake
hands with Barak during U.S.-sponsored talks earlier this year. "To come to
America and not shake hands with Barak," Peres said, "this can't be done
again in the future."
Tuesday, May 2, 2000
Subscribe to World Tribune.com's Daily Headline Alert
|