Good soldier Barak wanted Clinton to condemn Arafat

JERUSALEM — More than a year ago, Ehud Barak abandoned the 50-year-old alliance between Jews and Serbs and declared his support for the NATO offensive against Yugoslavia.

Over and over, Barak, then a candidate for prime minister, called on Israel to support the United States campaign against the regime of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade. Barak praised the United States for its effort to protect minorities and battle despotism.

Now, Barak as prime minister, wants to call in his chips. Barak has appealed to U.S. President Bill Clinton to declare Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat a pariah who is leading the Middle East to war. The prime minister has urged that peace efforts be suspended until after Arafat's passing and a new more moderate Palestinian leadership emerges.

Barak aides acknowledge, however, that the effort has failed. "When Barak supported the United States in the war against Yugoslavia, he was trying to set a precedent that force is needed and recognized to stop aggression," an aide said. "This is exactly what Barak now faces with Arafat."

But aides said Clinton does not regard Arafat as Milosevic. Milosevic was isolated on the eve of the NATO offensive in April 1999. Arafat is supported by the entire Arab, Islamic world and virtually all of Europe.

The images of the two men are also different. In 1999, the world saw television footage of Muslims fleeing Kosovo amid attacks by Milosevic's troops. Today, the world sees Israeli troops shooting Palestinian stonethrowers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The result is more than mere Israeli disappointment with the Clinton administration. It has led to a virtual paralysis in decision-making by the Barak government. Barak has already backed down from threats to end the peace process and attack the PA. He has dropped his opposition to an international committee of inquiry that will be composed of the United Nations, Norway and other states.

Barak aides said the prime minister believes his bluff to launch a military campaign worked. "There was no ultimatum," Barak's chief aide, Danny Yatom, said. "Since he [Barak] said this, the violence has subsided. Not a few world leaders have arrived."

The military is also waiting for orders from Barak. So far, defense sources said, the orders are unclear and often contradictory. On early Tuesday, the Israeli Cabinet announced restrictions on Palestinians from entering Israel. Hours later, military sources said at least 10,000 Palestinian laborers would be allowed to enter on a daily basis. By early Wednesday, that decision was reversed as well.

"The army is ready," a military source said. "It was ready for this violence for several months and prepared specific plans on what to attack and how. The rest is not up to us."

The sources add that Barak's failure to honor his ultimatum is simply encouraging Palestinian violence and eroding Israel's deterrence. They said this is also upping Hizbullah's price for any release of three Israeli soldiers captured on Saturday.

For their part, U.S. officials acknowledge that the latest violence threatens many of the assumptions of the 1993 Oslo process. The key assumption was that the Palestinian leadership would gradually end violence and foster a pro-Western and moderate society ready to reconcile with the Jewish state.

This has not taken place, the officials said. Still, they said, the Clinton administration cannot come to Israel's side without eroding any credibility Washington has left with the Palestinians and its Arab allies. Egypt and Syria have rejected Clinton's proposal for a summit with the participation of Arafat, Barak and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that would take place before the Arab summit on Oct. 21.

The officials said the most important step now is to end the violence and establish a mechanism to renew the peace process, even if this awaits a new administration next year. They said Clinton has contacted world leaders on the Middle East situation but remains uncertain of whether he will launch a diplomatic offensive that will include a visit to Gaza and Jerusalem.

"We've been working like crazy for the last several days to help do our part," Clinton said on Tuesday. "I just have to believe they're not going to let this thing spin out of control. There are lots of things going on there, including things that are not apparent -- developments in other countries that are having an impact on this."

Robert Satloff, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Clinton will spend the last months of his administration trying to save the Arab-Israeli peace process. In a study for the institute, Satloff said Clinton's choices are either to proceed with efforts to achieve a comprehensive peace treaty; reach another interim accord; recognize a truncated Palestinian state currently in areas under full PA control in the West Bank and Gaza Strip; or withdraw involvement. Satloff said all but the third choice appears unrealistic.

"To the Clinton administration, engrossed in the peace process since 1993, this [Israeli-Palestinian mini-war] came as a painful setback," Satloff said. "Chances are high, however, that the president will wade into Arab-Israeli diplomacy at least once again before leaving office -- either for one last push toward agreement or to ward off the accusation that he focused on peace when opportunity beckoned but left a mess to his successor."

The diplomatic offensive being considered by Clinton would include the formal presentation of a U.S. document to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians. U.S. officials said the document addresses such issues as the future of Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees.

Palestinian sources said the Clinton plan calls on the UN Security Council to maintain control over Jerusalem's Temple Mount until Israel and the Palestinians reach agreement. The United States envisions the mount under Palestinian sovereignty and the Western Wall below under Israeli sovereignty. The UN would also help maintain order in the Old City of Jerusalem and allocate authority to Israel and the Palestinians in the rest of the city.

The sources said Clinton has also prepared an alternative proposal. This would consist of an interim accord on Jerusalem. Under such an agreement, the Palestinians would not be pressed to declare an end of their conflict with Israel, a key demand by Barak.

The United States would recognize a Palestinian state that would contain the entire Gaza Strip and 95 percent of the West Bank, according to the Clinton proposal. Under the plan, Israel would cede territory in the Negev desert so that the Palestinians could obtain an area equivalent to that of the entire West Bank.

So far, the Palestinian sources said, Arafat has rejected Clinton's plan. They said Arafat has concluded that the White House is simply pandering to the Jewish vote.

"The positions of the U.S. secretary of state are worse than those of Barak and his government," PA Cabinet secretary Ahmed Abdul Rahman said. "They are engaging in a campaign to blacken the good name of the Palestinian people. Albright is not secretary of state of the United States, but of the Zionist lobby."

Israeli officials said under these circumstances Barak has few choices. Instead, they envision at least several more weeks, if not months, of violence and tension. The officials said Arafat wants to capitalize on the international support to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state and then return for negotiations with Israel on expanding the borders of the new entity.

"We want as a first step for the establishment of an international committee that will investigate the violence against us," PA minister and senior negotiator Saeb Erekat said. "The heart of the investigation should be why the Israelis are deployed around our villages and towns."

A senior Israeli intelligence officer said Arafat will continue to encourage violence against Jewish settlers and Israeli soldiers. The officer said Arafat feels Clinton no longer has the political strength to complete any peace agreement and that instead the president is only concerned with winning the Jewish vote required by his vice president, Al Gore, and his wife, Hilary.

As a result, the officer said, Arafat tells Western leaders that he has ordered a ceasefire while his aides continue to deny this. The latest denial came on Wednesday by Abdul Rahman, the PA Cabinet secretary.

Still, Arafat will not support Islamic suicide bombings that rocked Israel in 1995 and 1996. This, the intelligence officer said, will harm Arafat's image of a leader of a victimized people and threaten to erode his authority with Palestinians.

Israeli intelligence sources are convinced that Arafat is losing control over his armed cadres in the ruling Fatah movement. Many of the estimated 20,000 Fatah gunmen see Arafat as an aging and ill leader enswirled by a power struggle for his succession led by more militant Palestinians and encouraged by Hizbullah's success in achieving an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May. A key rival for power, they said, is Fatah chief Marwan Barghouti.

"It's clear that he [Arafat] has lost control," Knesset member Uzi Baram, a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said.

Arafat is so worried that the Palestinian violence will be directed against him that he has ordered his security forces to be on alert for any intention by the Islamic opposition to attack PA institutions, the intelligence sources said. At the same time, however, Arafat does not want to be seen by the Arab world and Palestinians as ending the current mini-war without achieving a clear diplomatic victory.

The intelligence sources said Arafat will maintain attacks against Israel until at least the scheduled Arab League summit on Oct. 21 in Cairo. The approach of the summit has been accompanied by violent anti-Israeli demonstrations throughout Arab capitals in the Middle East.

The sources said Arafat has ordered Fatah gunmen not to fire during the day, when they could be photographed by Western cameramen. The result is that the gunmen have resort to nightly attacks on Israeli troops and civilians.

Already, Arafat's refusal to stop violence against Israel has led to an improvement in relations with longtime foe Syria. On Tuesday, Arafat telephoned Syrian President Bashar Assad in the first direct contact between the two since the death of Assad's father in June. Moreover, Kuwait has decided to shelve its longtime enmity to Arafat to allow a brief stopover by PLO Central Committee chairman Salim Zaanoun later this month.

"He [Arafat] wants to take advantage of the uprising in order to return to the negotiating table with the West's support," the officer said. "On the other, he wants to boost his own personal support among the Palestinian people."