World Tribune.com

Iran could launch ICBM by 2005

Special to World Tribune.com
MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE
Wednesday, September 27, 2000

The U.S. intelligence community forecasts an Iranian launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2005.

The assessment by the CIA predicts an Iranian crash development program that completes the intermediate-range Shihab-3, Shihab-4 and then focuses on a three-stage intercontinental ballistic missile that could strike the United States. The program would be aided by China, North Korea and Russia and continue regardless of whether Iranian reformists gain power.

Robert Walpole, the CIA's national intelligence officer, said most of the U.S. intelligence community predicts that Iran will be able to launch a three-stage rocket based on North Korea's Taepo Dong missile. North Korea tested the Taepo Dong-1 in 1998 and is working on an advanced Taepo Dong-2 model.

"Most believe that Iran could develop and test a three-stage TD-2-type ICBM during this period, possibly with North Korean assistance; it would be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States," Walpole told a congressional subcommittee last week. "A few believe that the hypothetical routes toward an Iranian ICBM are less plausible than they appeared in our analysis last year and believe that Iran will not be able to test any ICBM in the 2001-2005 time frame."

The CIA official told the Senate International Security, Proliferation and Federal Services Subcommittee on Thursday that Iran's ICBM would tipped with a nonconventional warhead.

Walpole said Iran will probably develop an intermediate-range ballistic missile based on Russian technology before developing an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Walpole said some in the U.S. intelligence community assess that Iran is likely to try to demonstrate a rudimentary ICBM booster capability as soon as possible. By 2010, he said, many in the intelligence community believe Iran will test an intercontinental ballistic missile that is "capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States. A few believe such a test is unlikely until after 2010."

Norman Schindler, deputy director of the CIA's Nonproliferation Center, said Iran has invested a tremendous amount of resources in concealing its nuclear program. Schindler said Iran seeks nuclear-related equipment, material, and technical expertise from a variety of foreign sources, especially in Russia.

"The intelligence community judges that Iran is actively pursuing the acquisition of fissile material and the expertise and technology necessary to form the material into nuclear weapons," Schindler told the Senate subcommittee. "As part of this process, Iran is attempting to develop the capability to produce both plutonium and highly-enriched uranium.

Schindler said Russian companies are working with Iran beyond the construction of a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power reactor at Bushehr supervised International Atomic Energy Agency. "Russian entities are interacting with Iranian nuclear research centers on a wide variety of activities beyond the Bushehr project," he said. "Many of these projects have direct application to the production of weapons-grade fissile material."

Wednesday, September 27, 2000

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