The U.S. intelligence community forecasts an Iranian
launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2005.
The assessment by the CIA predicts an Iranian crash development program
that completes the intermediate-range Shihab-3, Shihab-4 and then focuses on
a three-stage intercontinental ballistic missile that could strike the
United States. The program would be aided by China, North Korea and Russia
and continue regardless of whether Iranian reformists gain power.
Robert Walpole, the CIA's national intelligence officer, said most of
the U.S. intelligence community predicts that Iran will be able to launch a
three-stage rocket based on North Korea's Taepo Dong missile. North Korea
tested the Taepo Dong-1 in 1998 and is working on an advanced Taepo Dong-2
model.
"Most believe that Iran could develop and test a three-stage TD-2-type
ICBM during this period, possibly with North Korean assistance; it would be
capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States,"
Walpole told a congressional subcommittee last week. "A few believe that the
hypothetical routes toward an Iranian ICBM are less plausible than they
appeared in our analysis last year and believe that Iran will not be able to
test any ICBM in the 2001-2005 time frame."
The CIA official told the Senate International Security, Proliferation
and Federal Services Subcommittee on Thursday that Iran's ICBM would tipped
with a nonconventional warhead.
Walpole said Iran will probably develop an intermediate-range ballistic
missile based on Russian technology before developing an intercontinental
ballistic missile.
Walpole said some in the U.S. intelligence community assess that Iran is
likely to try to demonstrate a rudimentary ICBM booster capability as soon
as possible. By 2010, he said, many in the intelligence community believe
Iran will test an intercontinental ballistic missile that is "capable of
delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States. A few
believe such a test is unlikely until after 2010."
Norman Schindler, deputy director of the CIA's Nonproliferation Center,
said Iran has invested a tremendous amount of resources in concealing its
nuclear program. Schindler said Iran seeks nuclear-related equipment,
material, and technical expertise from a variety of foreign sources,
especially in Russia.
"The intelligence community judges that Iran is actively pursuing the
acquisition of fissile material and the expertise and technology necessary
to form the material into nuclear weapons," Schindler told the Senate
subcommittee. "As part of this process, Iran is attempting to develop the
capability to produce both plutonium and highly-enriched uranium.
Schindler said Russian companies are working with Iran beyond the
construction of a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power reactor at Bushehr supervised
International Atomic Energy Agency. "Russian entities are interacting with
Iranian nuclear research centers on a wide variety of activities beyond the
Bushehr project," he said. "Many of these projects have direct application
to the production of weapons-grade fissile material."