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Brazil has gone through a political rite of passage. Recently, nearly 110 million Brazilians went to the polls in more than 5,500 cities to choose mayors and city councilors, and rather than voting on the basis of ideology, for the first time they widely sorted out candidates according to their perceived ability in running a good municipal government.
Brazil's left-wing Workers Party, the PT, made strong advances in the first round of voting and is now the favorite to win in Sao Paulo, the biggest city in the country, when run-offs are held in four weeks, and in a number of other state capitals. But the right-wing Liberal Front Party (PFL) also performed well in the first round.
Analysts said the PT had emerged stronger from Sunday's elections, but warned against drawing firm conclusions about the outlook for the 2002 presidential elections.
“The results have little to do with national politics,” said Alexandre Barros, a political analyst in Brasilia. “The elector is saying that he wants better services and the PT and the PFL have both shown themselves competent at local government.”
In the first time that sitting mayors were allowed to stand for a second term in office, 15 of the 26 state capitals re-elected their mayors in the first round, reinforcing the theory that voters would reward politicians who had produced a good administration.
“The big winner has been good government,” said Murillo de Aragao from the University of Brasilia.
Under the Brazilian electoral system, a candidate who gets more than 50 per cent of the votes is declared the victor in the first round. Otherwise, the top two candidates go into a run-off on October 29.
In Sao Paulo, Marta Suplicy of the PT is the firm favorite to win in the second round, after receiving 38 per cent of the votes. She will face Paulo Maluf, the rightwing former mayor, who narrowly squeezed out Geraldo Alckmin of the Social Democrats (PSDB).
The PT won for the first time in Aracaju in Sergipe state and will take a lead into the second round voting in Porto Alegre, Belem and Goiania. A candidate from an opposition party is also expected to win in Belo Horizonte, the third largest city, in the second round.
However, legendary Benedita da Silva, the PT’s candidate in Rio de Janeiro, the second biggest city, who became famous as she ascended from ordinary maid to political figure, did not make it into the second round, which will be contested by Luiz Paulo Conde, the current mayor from the PFL, and Cesar Maia, a former mayor.
According to Aragao, a victory in Sao Paulo would be an important step for the PT as it prepares for the presidential elections scheduled for 2002. "However, they will have the responsibility of governing well, which will be not be easy given the city’s huge problems," he said.
But even as the PT—which has campaigned against president Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s deep free-market reforms in recent years—leaps ahead in municipalities, the president’s center-right coalition is not seen as affected at the national level. Also, the PT that is winning is a moderate PT with a less radical discourse than it had in past.
“The results will have little impact on the government or its support base,” said political analyst Carlos Lopes. “These elections are on such a huge scale and revolve around such specific and localized issues that it is difficult to point out to winners and losers.”
This is also the way foreign investors see the results of the election. They say gains by opposition parties in the municipal elections across Brazil, and even the tilt toward the left, threatens neither Cardoso’s economic reforms nor his national clout.
“Brazilians have been leaning toward the left not because of economic policies but because they are tired of corruption,” said David Wheeler, managing director of Wall Street’s Bear Stearns in Brazil.
And, anyway, the party with the most mayors after the first round remained the centrist PMDB, with 1,231. In comparison, the PT had 172, while Cardoso’s Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) received the most votes, making no gains but neither losing any the city halls that it already controlled.
It could be argued also that, in the soccer-crazed nation that is Brazil, the public discussion about its humiliating medal-free exit from the Olympics is overshadowing interest about the recent election, particularly when Brazil’s soccer bosses, already under fire for the bad showing, are facing this week a new attack when Congress launches a special investigation into corruption in the sport, with allegations ranging from tax avoidance to under-the-table commissions for player transfers.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com