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The political map of South America looks as if one huge national mass, Brazil, had pressed itself from the eastern coast of the continent, crowding out all the region’s other countries into whatever space was left over. With an area 50 percent larger than the contiguous United States, Brazil occupies nearly one-half of South America and has a common frontier with every country in the continent except Chile and Ecuador.
The size of their country is a reality of which Brazilians have been well aware over the centuries. Now it looks as if they are moving towards putting it into play in the continent’s politics.
It certainly isn’t a question of territorial ambitions. With a relatively low population density and about 80 percent of its people living within 200 miles of the Atlantic coast, Brazil has plenty of space to accommodate its growing population, now on the way to 180 million. Even though it is already an important agricultural country, Brazil’s area under cultivation totals only about 7 percent of the total land area. It has immense timber resources, the forest areas covering about 2.2 million sq. mi. And its mineral resources are among the world’s largest.
What is it then that makes Brazil show increasing signs it is seeking regional dominance?
The idea of South America as an entity that can act as a coherent geopolitical unit and potential free-trade zone, distinct from Latin America, which takes in Mexico, Central America and parts of the Caribbean and is dominated by the U.S., is a logical and uncontroversial goal, shared by all the countries in the region. But what is not shared by them is the idea that this southern block be guided by Brazil—and this is the role Brazil is attempting to forge for itself, mainly based on the fact that it accounts for half the region’s economic output.
Two weeks ago, Brazil’s movement towards this goal became clearer than ever before at the summit meeting of 12 South American chiefs of state hosted in Brasilia by president Fernando Henrique Cardoso. In the context of advancing towards the proposed free-trade zone that is evolving around two trade blocs, Mercosur and the Andean Community, the declared purpose of the conference was to discuss what Brazilian officials call “physical integration”—attempts to co-ordinate and finance the growing number of cross-border infrastructure projects in the region.
Brazil, whose growing economy is stretching its energy resources to the limit, is at the center of most of these projects. It already pumps in gas from Bolivia and Argentina and has similar plans with Venezuela and Uruguay. But it wants to quicken the process.
“There is lots of inertia that has to be bridged,” says Luiz Felipe Lampreia, Brazil’s foreign minister. “Only a major political push can function as a catalyst of possible integration.”
Nevertheless, Brazilian officials publicly reject the suggestion that they want to be considered the regional leader—they know a heavy-handed approach would upset their neighbors, particularly Argentina. But they count on some help from outside the region.
South American unity would present a challenge to the U.S. but, paradoxically, Washington might feel more comfortable dealing with a bloc led by Brazil, whose diplomacy has a track record of avoiding confrontation and seeking agreement through compromise.
Indeed, in the areas where Brazil has been exerting greater influence in the region in recent years, it has usually been supported by Washington. Pressure from Brazil helped defuse two coup attempts in Paraguay, end the border conflict between Peru and Ecuador and restore stability in Ecuador after January’s short-lived military coup. Brazil has also at times acted as a go-between in the sometimes prickly relations between the U.S. and Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president.
It is also expected that the global financial markets would look with sympathy at a Brazil-led South America. Brazil’s long-term prospects for economic stability and growth today are brighter than they have been for years. In addition to a stable currency and falling interest rates, recent figures showing higher than expected economic growth during the first two quarters of this year have underscored the country’s strong fundamentals—while most analysts point the finger at neighboring Argentina, where poorer-than-expected economic performance has put fiscal targets into doubt and depressed the equity market.
There are, however, domestic critics of President Cardoso’s move towards gaining the leadership of a regional trade bloc. They believe that the country’s foreign policy should be directed precisely towards gaining U.S. market access as quickly as possible, and not towards regional integration, alleging that an increase in the volume of Brazilian trade can only be resolved through an agreement with the U.S. and that concentrating on South America is an incredibly expensive diplomatic exercise with a questionable economic outcome.
But Cardoso’s drive towards placing Brazil at the head of a South American bloc touches a sensitive fiber among Brazilians, who frequently speak of their country as a “sleeping giant”. The idea that is waking up to a leadership role can easily find a popular.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com