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Next Sunday, May 28, voters in two major South American countries go the polls to choose a president. Running in both are sitting presidents who are seeking reelection. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, elected in a landslide in December 1998; in Peru, Alberto Fujimori, first elected in 1990 with a large majority and now serving his second term. Both these presidents gained approval in referendums for changes in their respective constitutions that strengthened presidential power at the expense of legislative power—a substantial change in Peru; an even more radical change in Venezuela.
In Peru, on April 9 Fujimori failed to gain the 50-plus majority needed to win outright over his opponent, Alejandro Toledo, in the midst of charges—both internal and external and in which the United States played a leading role—that the government was manipulating the vote count to give the president a first-round victory.
Citing unfairness in the runup to the second round, Toledo, who is neck-and-neck with Fujimori in the latest polls, has refused to run unless there is a three week delay and urged Peruvians not to vote May 28. The Organization of American States (OAS) has echoed Toledo’s criticisms and warned it will not back a May 28 vote if Peru does not resolve irregularities in the election process. Computer problems caused a slow vote count in the first round and sparked fears of a government-sponsored fraud.
Also showing concern, U.S. officials said last week they were supporting the OAS request for a delay and would carefully monitor the electoral process, but the delay was refused by the electoral commission. Furthermore, in an interview on Peruvian television Fujimori said the OAS, the U.S. State Department, and Toledo were not qualified to dictate a delay in the election.
If Toledo does not participate in the runoff, the vote would still be held and Fujimori would likely be declared the winner. But he would have be seen as having little legitimacy
In a sign this political crisis could hit the economy, Peruvian stocks fell 3.43 percent last Friday, their biggest decline in 15 months. The Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency said it might cut Peru’s long-term foreign debt credit rating, warning that the crisis could weaken the next government.
Turbulence in Peru comes amid increasing concerns over instability in an Andean region rocked by leftist rebel violence in Colombia, a financial crisis in Ecuador and the future of democracy in Venezuela under President Chavez.
The race for reelection of Venezuela’s leftist president, a former army paratrooper, has turned into a bitter contest with his once closest comrade-in-arms. Encouraged by extensive support from Venezuela’s poor majority, only a few months ago there seemed little reason to doubt that the reelection on May 28 of the populist president, who enjoyed an approval rating of 80 percent, would be anything but sure. But, although his chances of winning next Sunday’s election are still good, lately he has seen his popularity in opinion polls slip to about 50 percent.
Unemployment has doubled to almost 20 per cent, as the recession resulted in the loss of 600,000 jobs last year and the closing of 1,000 industrial companies; crime levels have soared, and relief is very slow in coming for those affected by the worst natural disaster in Venezuela’s modern history, when four months ago a strip of Caribbean coast just north of Caracas was inundated by floods and devastated by mudslides. In a matter of weeks, disenchantment with Chavez has grown to the benefit of one of his key comrades in the 1992 attempted military coup, Francisco Arias. Instantly registering an approval rating of some 30 per cent in opinion polls held within days of his surprise announced candidature in March, the twice-elected governor of the oil-rich state of Zulia is posing a serious threat to Chavez.
In an apparent effort to help the president regain some of the lost ground, Venezuela’s public prosecutor last week demanded that the Supreme Court investigate Luis Miquilena, Chavez’s top political adviser and party leader of his Fifth Republic Movement, for influence peddling and illicit gains. A high-profile court case against Miquilena would be a key test of whether the president’s allegiance lies closer to his most valued political operator than to his resolve to root out corruption.
But another more serious challenge to Chavez has emerged from a group of retired generals and admirals. Last week, the Institutional Military Front, a group of retired army and aviation generals and navy admirals, after enumerating in a communiqué a series of “grave irregularities” in the electoral process, stated: "It’s probable that certain presidential candidates and vast sectors of society will not accept the results of the election. In that difficult moment, the armed forces should tip the balance to maintain public order and preserve the rule of law”—words that, in the context of the past history of the Venezuelan military when it was considering intervention in the political process, were taken to mean a coup was possible.
The split between Chavez and the three former commanders who helped him stage his 1992 putsch—including candidate Arias—has uncovered deep military dissatisfaction with Chavez’s leftist agenda, and his recent cancellation of two joint military training exercises with the United States and his promotion of military ties to Cuba “has reinforced irritation with Chavez” in the armed forces, said retired Vice Admiral Mario Ivan Carratu.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com