Special to WorldTribune.com
By John J. Metzler, February 20, 2025
Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, there seems to be a chance for peace. But this political intermezzo may be as fleeting as the approaching Spring weather to soon sweep the steppes yet at the same time remains a worthwhile window of opportunity for all parties to reach a ceasefire and then begin the long and perilous quest for peace.
Three events over the past week highlighted the opportunity; President Donald Trump spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin about ending the Ukraine war. Trump conversed with Zelensky shortly thereafter. Early discussions on Ukraine took place in Saudi Arabia and will include high level U.S. and Kremlin delegations.
Speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump stated, “I think we’re on the way to getting peace. I think President Putin wants peace, President Zelensky wants peace, and I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed.”
The controversy with the peace discussions rests with the Europeans feeling they have been politically sidelined by the fast-moving events leading to fast-track diplomacy. “A few days ago, President Trump told me about his conversation with Putin. Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at that table. That says a lot,” Zelensky commented in a candid address at the recent Munich Security Conference.
Second, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited American troops stationed in Poland, the true frontline to both Ukraine and Putin’s wider ambitions for Europe to offer solidarity and support for Poland’s decisiveness. But days earlier at a Brussels meeting, Secretary Hegseth conceded it was “unrealistic” to think Ukraine could win back its sovereign territory already occupied by Russia, as well as its demand to join NATO. He stressed it was the responsibility of the Europeans and not American troops to keep the peace.
His observations obviously did not play well in Kyiv nor European capitals. Yet, keep in mind the Secretary of Defense does not make foreign policy. Thus, Hegseth’s apparent mixed messages may actually be “sounding out” allies and confusing the Russians.
Third, Vice President J.D. Vance, addressing at the prestigious Munich Security Conference, shocked his European audience by not speaking about Ukraine as expected, but rather the domestic weaknesses affecting many European countries, among them Germany, the U.K. and Sweden.
JD Vance warned, “the threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China… What I worry about is the threat from within. The retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values: values shared with the United States of America.” Mind you he was addressing startled status quo European elites!
The Vice President blasted Euro leaders for often slack policies on illegal migration and systemic threats to free speech. Intense European diplomatic fallout followed.
Nonetheless the statements by the President, Vice President and Defense Secretary are setting out the negotiating parameters not specific policy goals and certainly not outcomes. These are rhetorical probes not political solutions.
Still can serious negotiations with Russia begin without joint Ukrainian/European Union negotiations? Ukraine has been suffering and bleeding throughout the conflict and Russia’s earlier territorial dismemberment since the 2014 seizure of Crimea. The Kyiv government boldly stated that it deserves to participate in the diplomatic discussions.
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Statements by the President, Vice President and Defense Secretary are setting out the negotiating parameters not specific policy goals and certainly not outcomes. These are rhetorical probes not political solutions. |
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has told Germany’s DW that “there is no chance to have a fair and just deal over Ukraine’s future without Ukraine,” he said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference adding, “How can you guys negotiate the future of Ukraine without Ukrainians?” Point well taken.
Now a rhetorical dustup between President Trump and Ukraine’s Zelensky has both sides scrambling to stabilize ties and get back on track towards a diplomatic settlement.
Again, keep in mind these are preliminary discussions which may or may not lead to further talks and only then move to serious peace treaty negotiations.
While the whirlwind blows through the halls of European Foreign Ministries and the media, communist China is carefully placing itself into the equation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also speaking in Munich, presented a more accommodating and reconciliatory tone to address Europeans. He said that China sees Europe as a partner, not a rival, and offered to play a “constructive role” in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks. But keep in mind Beijing is a close Russian ally.
In the wider Ukraine context, will U.S. diplomatic decisiveness outperform EU political muddle?
As Winston Churchill stated in another similar age, “There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.”
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
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