FPI / December 6, 2024
By Richard Fisher
On Dec. 3 China launched its 60th space mission for 2024; But with one month to go China may not reach its goal of 100 orbital launches but may surpass its record of 67 launches for 2023.
However, annual launch rates may soon well surpass 100 as in 2025 China will begin testing multiple reusable space launch vehicles (RSLVs).
In late February the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), China’s largest state-owned space vehicle and military missile producer, claimed that China would conduct 100 orbital space launches in 2024, with 70 conducted by CASC made launchers and the rest by China’s growing space “private” sector.
This compares to the 118 orbital launches conducted by the U.S. SpaceX Corporation by Nov. 21, 2024, with reported estimates that SpaceX will conduct 148 launches in 2024, a target it may not fulfill. However, reusable Blue Origin New Glenn RSLVs could start testing by early 2025, further increasing U.S. annual launch rates.
Of note, the Dec. 3 launch from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center marked the 100th launch of the CASC Long March-3B/BE, designed to exploit Xichang’s location to put satellites into geosynchronous orbits that maintain a position over the Earth, and this mission launched a new military electronic intelligence or communications satellite called Tongxin Jishu Shiyan-13 (TJS-13).
The Long March-3B/BE series, however, is not reusable and is powered by Unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH), which can be very toxic to humans during a SLV crash.
Chinese government sources reported only 6 deaths from a Feb. 15, 1996 Long March-3B launch, though in a July 8, 2013 article for TheSpaceReview, independent Chinese space analyst Chen Lan estimated that between 500 and 1,000 Chinese died.
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