Are India-U.S. ties being enhanced in Trump 2.0?

Special to WorldTribune.com

By John J. Metzler, January 31, 2025

Already close and cordial India/U.S. political ties surged in the early hours of the new Trump Administration.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was honored with rare front row seating at the Inauguration of President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the Washington ceremony.

The guest from India commented, “It was very clear that the Trump Administration’s keen to have India present at the inauguration itself. They’re clearly prioritizing the bilateral relationship.” Minister Jaishankar added, “They would like to build on the foundation of the relationship, a foundation which the first Trump administration also contributed a lot to building.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, meets with India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Significantly, the very first bilateral (two way) meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio was with Minister Jaishankar as part of a wider gathering of the Indo-Pacific QUAD security grouping. This encounter marked Secretary Rubio’s first two-way meeting since assuming office. The consultations formed part of a wider diplomatic effort to support the QUAD; the grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States which focuses on maritime, economic, supply-chain security.

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and the Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, were both in Washington for the Inauguration and the Quad conference.

Contrary to misperceptions, the QUAD group is not an Asian NATO nor a formal military alliance; Yet the group comprising four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific, serves as a maritime counter-balance to Communist China especially in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

The QUAD joint statement following the meeting served to “reaffirm our shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.”

The statement added, “We also strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion… We are committed to strengthening regional maritime, economic, and technology security in the face of increasing threats, as well as promoting reliable and resilient supply chains.”

China while clearly discussed at the Washington confab was not specifically mentioned in the formal statement. Nonetheless Japan’s Iwaya told the press that ‘it was very meaningful” that Secretary Rubio’s first meeting was a Quad gathering and that the first joint statement of the new U.S. administration was released by the four countries. This allays some concern in Japan that the Trump Administration would not value key Asian allies.

Indeed in a separate encounter with Rubio, a Japanese Foreign Ministry statement added, “The two Ministers concurred to advance cooperation to further strengthen Japan-U.S. Alliance deterrence and response capabilities.” Japan also wished to strengthen security ties with regional states such as South Korea and the Philippines.

But back to India. What’s often called the world’s largest democracy, India’s post-independence political scene has fortunately avoided the tumultuous times facing neighbor Pakistan or much of South Asia for that matter.

India celebrated its Republic Day, the 75th Anniversary of its Constitution, a democratic and largely secular document uniting an overwhelmingly Hindu but still multi-religious, multi-ethnic and multi-linguistic nation-state.

India /U.S. political ties have improved dramatically in the past 25 years reflecting the bi-partisan approach in Washington towards what’s emerged as a key political, diplomatic and commercial partner. Contrary to popular myth, India does not have formal military ties with Washington but has a close working relationship as seen in the QUAD.

And for the past 25 years, India’s economy has become increasingly less socialist-inclined and more enterprise-oriented thus allowing for raised living standards and higher economic growth.

India’s economic (GDP) growth remains impressive slated at 6.8 percent for 2024.

Just look at economic links. During 2023, two-way India/U.S. trade reached $124 billion. The American trade deficit with India was $43 billion. But to illustrate how commercial ties have grown, a decade ago in 2013, the two-way trade with India stood at $64 billion. Then the deficit in New Delhi’s favor was $20 billion; The deficit doubled in a decade.

As a matter of comparison, 2023 bilateral trade with China reached $574 billion with a $279 billion trade deficit favoring Beijing!

India joins the list of Top Ten U.S. trade partners. Yet given the glaring deficit, shall President Trump focus on possibly using trade tariffs on India despite the close political ties with the Modi government? During the first Trump term, the U.S. slapped higher tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum products.

American diplomats are busy trying to arrange a February meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump in Washington to help “seal the deal” for future ties.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]